Long-time analyst Filbfilb says Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to approach $50,000 before and after next year’s block subsidy halving event.
In a new interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader shared his current views on BTC price action.
Filbfilb: Bitcoin gives ‘strong indicator’ of bear market breakout
Filbfilb believes that Bitcoin has truly cemented its position out of the sub-$30,000 trading range that characterized the market for much of 2023.
After overcoming multiple resistance levels, the question now facing Bitcoin bulls is how the price action will lead to the halving.
With an April 2024 deadline, less than five months until the event, Filbfilb believes a “reasonable” bullish target could be located just below the $50,000 mark. This echoes his assumptions during an interview in early September, when BTC/USD was trading just under $26,000.
That said, it’s likely that a retracement will occur first, testing the morale of those who may have become accustomed to rising Bitcoin prices.
Read on to learn what might happen to Bitcoin in the coming months from a technical price perspective.
Cointelegraph (CT): Do you think BTC has clearly broken out of its previous range below $30,000? How do you measure the strength of various moving averages (MAs) that have previously acted as resistance?
Filb(FF): The 20, 50, 100 and 200-week simple moving averages are all currently around $30,000. They are also at the top of the trading range below $30,000 and above $25,000, a range that Bitcoin has been in for around 200 days.
The two combined suggest buying interest is coming below, and together form a strong indicator of a two-year bear market breakout and trend change.
CT: What is your timeline for approving a Bitcoin ETF? What impact do you think this event will have on prices?
FF: My view on ETFs is still the same, which is to continue to postpone it as long as possible, but spot ETFs are inevitable. The major players are not wasting time, so it remains a matter of time.
Given their stance on market manipulation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see deliberate approval coming from the left.
CT: Where would you draw the control point on the BTC price chart right now? What resistance and support levels (R/S) are you watching?
FF: This depends on the specific time. The past few years have shown that $26,000 is an important control point; over the past six months, this has shown that it is closer to $27,000.
Resistance is near $38,000-41,000; there is heavy trading volume there before we see multiple implosions of the crypto entity. Some will exit, and some will consider reallocating capital in the new environment. This is an obvious area of contention.
CT: In our last interview, you argued that the Bitcoin price rally was part of the pre-halving action in Q4. Has that view changed much since then? Some worry that the first quarter of 2024 could have the opposite effect.
FF: I think it’s fair to say that we saw price increases in the fourth quarter. The cyclical model implies a pullback in the first quarter of 2024 before another halving.
Related: Financing rates echo $69K BTC price – 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week
In my opinion, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the bears ($46,000-48,000) would be a reasonable technical target assumption from a bullish perspective.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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