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A center-left anti-corruption candidate is set to win the Guatemalan presidency as voters express anger over the political establishment’s failure to tackle corruption in Central America’s largest economy.
Former diplomat Bernardo Arevalo was expected to defeat former first lady Sandra Torres on Sunday night with 59 percent of the vote, while Torres had 37 percent, according to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. More than 95% have been counted. .
Arevalo, 64, stunned Guatemala’s conservative political class by finishing second in June’s first round of voting, allowing him to run against Torres in the runoff.
The results of the first round have been questioned by the ruling party and its allies. Prosecutors have since filed several legal actions against his Seed Movement party, which human rights groups and foreign governments say are illegal attempts to interfere with the election results. Arevalo described Sunday’s vote as a referendum on Guatemala’s fragile democracy.
Analysts are now bracing for a tense transition and possible new efforts to prevent Arevalo from taking office or effectively governing. Torres did not budge Sunday night, but outgoing conservative President Alejandro Giamaté congratulated Arevalo and said he was ready to transition once the result was finalized.
Guatemalan voters were drawn to the self-described social democrat’s anti-corruption message. Arevalo’s party grew out of the widespread protests known as the “Guatemala Spring” in 2015, which were brought to light by Cicig, a U.N.-backed investigative agency. The government abruptly closed the agency in 2019.
Dozens of former prosecutors, judges and journalists have fled the country or been imprisoned, including Jose Ruben Zamora, one of the most prominent media figures. The attorney general is sanctioned by the US for corruption.
“I think most Guatemalans are tired of the broken political class,” said Will Freeman, Latin America fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “What makes Arevalo unique is not that he is moderate, radical, center-left, left… . . . the fact that he is an outsider and that he and his party are not established with any other corrupt faction alliance.”
Arevalo, the son of a popular former president, has pledged to create a national anti-corruption system, create a more meritocratic civil service and digitize public services. He also said he would reduce tax evasion and consider public-private partnerships in infrastructure.
Analysts say Arevalo faces an uphill battle in power despite his broad mandate and international support. His party will also hold just 23 of the 160-seat parliament, forcing it to form a coalition government or coalition to pass legislation. Prosecutors are also pursuing legal action against the party that, if successful, could result in party members being barred from certain positions in the legislature.
“We may face new challenges or doubts about the election results,” said Eduardo Nunez, director of Guatemala’s National Democratic Institute. Nunes added that Arevalo’s ability to secure the support of social movements and the private sector will be crucial.
Guatemala’s economy expected to grow 3.2% This year, according to UN forecasts. Highly conservative fiscal management means its public debt stock is less than 30% of GDP, although foreign investment has fallen below 2%.
Juan Carlos Zapata, director of Fundesa, a private-sector think tank, said the next administration should focus on attracting investment by addressing bottlenecks in infrastructure, skills and the rule of law.
Jason Malzak, director of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center at the Atlantic Council, said: “With Arevalo’s party under investigation, we must take no action against him or his party as a political revenge.”
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