Some Western Balkans leaders are increasingly frustrated that Ukraine has overtaken their countries in the EU membership process, further delaying their decades-long efforts to join the bloc.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic told the Financial Times: “I don’t have any animosity towards Ukrainians.” But the level of EU support for Ukraine, which granted it EU candidate status within a year of its application and could start next year Accession talks, “show us that (this kind of political support) has never been provided to us,” he said.
Kiev applied to join in February 2022, days after Russia’s full-scale invasion, and was granted candidacy four months later. By contrast, Belgrade had to wait more than four years after applying to start accession negotiations in 2014.
Negotiations in Serbia are currently bogged down by several issues, most notably Belgrade’s failure to normalize relations with the former province of Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008. Serbia is also the only Western Balkan country that has not accepted EU sanctions against Russia. A further slowdown in EU sanctions against Russia reduces its membership prospects.
The EU has committed to speeding up the accession process of six Western Balkan countries – Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina – and European Council President Charles Michel believes that the first group should join the EU before 2030 Finish.
But at a recent event in Slovenia after Michel’s announcement, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama expressed doubts about the new targets and quipped that the example of Ukraine showed that war could speed up membership.
“Who in this group should attack to gain membership faster?” Rama jokingly asked the other leaders who took the stage with him. “Bulgaria can easily attack North Macedonia, Croatia can attack Serbia, Serbia can attack Kosovo, Bosnia can attack itself . . . and we’ll be ready to get on the train to Ukraine.”
While Ukraine’s rapid progress has frustrated many, North Macedonia, a NATO country that waited 18 years to begin membership talks, said it did not view the war-torn country as a “rival.”
“The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the fate of the alliance itself,” North Macedonia’s Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani said. “Ukraine should not be seen as privileged because Ukraine is not just fighting for itself, it is fighting for . . . the future of the African continent.”
The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s led to war between Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands and the displacement of millions. Since then, hostilities have repeatedly broken out, including over Bosnia’s composition and Kosovo’s status, making their integration into the EU even more elusive.
“Neither Kosovo nor Serbia will have a European future without normalization of relations,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said after another fruitless summit between the two leaders on Thursday. Kosovo applied to join the EU in December last year, but has not yet received candidate status.
Nonetheless, Vucic claimed the delays did not reflect the reality in his country, which he believed was “in a much better position than when Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007”. He also blamed the EU’s declining ability to absorb new member states.
“We (heard) it was about 2025 and now it’s 2030… seven years,” Vucic said. “Who knows what will happen in seven years? The EU’s absorptive capacity is no greater than before. There are 10 net donors and 17 countries receiving their funds. Neither side wants more on their pay rolls member.”
Speaking at the meeting in Slovenia, Michel said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced a reckoning and the resumption of expansion in the Balkans after two decades of stagnation.
“It’s ambitious, but it’s necessary. It shows we are serious,” he said of the 2030 pledge.
Analysts said the pledge was unconvincing given ongoing problems with the rule of law and corruption and other issues that have held them back for years.
“I don’t think this 2030 date makes sense,” said Jasmin Mujanović, a Sarajevo-born political scientist who specializes in the Western Balkans. “Ukraine’s geopolitical moment has arrived, but it is very difficult,” he added, comparing the current situation to 2003, when the Western Balkans first proposed joining.
He pointed out that at that time, the violent conflicts in the area had just ended, and the sense of urgency was even stronger. “In 2003, the EU had no competitors, and there were no threats from Russia or China… People’s optimism was much higher.”
But 20 years on, “we see the EU breaking every promise and failing on every threat,” he said. In Serbia, the far right is making a comeback; in Bosnia, Milorad Dodik, a frequent critic of the EU and the West, is “untouchable”; and Belgrade’s dispute with Kosovo remains unresolved. “The hope for any credible improvement is slim.”
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