A new BTC price model states that Bitcoin (BTC) is about to pass through a “mid-cycle lull” to test holders before beginning a bull run in late 2024.
According to its creator, renowned analyst CryptoCon, “November 28 Cycle Theory” calls for a new all-time high in BTC prices in 2025.
Countdown to BTC Price “Bull Start”
Amid the debate over the nature of the current Bitcoin four-year price cycle, CryptoCon argues that when it comes to BTC/USD performance at a given time, it may be simpler than many imagine.
He posted a “November 28” chart on X (formerly known as Twitter), describing the date as a key pivot point of the year, while also defining the three-week time periods on either side.
“According to my theory, using a 4-year time period, I can derive the exact behavior of Bitcoin since its inception. The period is centered on the first halving date of November 28th,” he explained.
“Bitcoin price action started with the first bottom on October 8, 2010. This is where the cycle curve peaks every 4 years. Tops and bottoms occur on the curve +/- 21 days from November 28 as appropriate The time. The top is the rising period, and the bottom is the peak.”
The chart describes Nov. 28 as the date of Bitcoin’s “bull start” every four years. The last time it happened was in 2020, when BTC/USD broke through its previous all-time high (ATH), reaching its current record of $69,000 a year later.
So the next focus is November 2024. Until then, BTC’s price action will be in a “mid-cycle lull.”
CryptoCon continued: “After Bitcoin bottomed, price volatility (orange) early in the first cycle and into a mid-cycle lull.”
“This is the longest part of the cycle where Bitcoin spends time around mid-price (half of previous ATH) until the curve bottoms out.”
He added that bitcoin has “almost certainly” peaked, referring to July’s local high of $31,800.
Bitcoin ‘False Bull Breakout’
As Cointelegraph reported, opinions are divided on what BTC price will do after the 2024 block subsidy halving.
Related: Bitcoin Halving Could Push BTC Price to $148k by July 2025 — Pantera Capital
Some believe holders will see only modest gains ahead of an event scheduled for next April.
Still, in an interview with Cointelegraph this week, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, gave a halving target of $46,000, with an expected year-end target of $35,000.
in his latest newsletter published Meanwhile, on Sept. 5, CryptoCon summed up BTC price action in 2023 as a “bull market false breakout.”
“This makes it look like a bull market started on the trigger of many signals, but at a certain point, prices just can’t continue,” he wrote.
“This is the most convincing example we’ve seen so far. Personally, I think it’s a while away and I’m patiently waiting for it to be done.”
As of this writing, September 8, BTC/USD is trading at $26,200, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph Markets Pro transaction view.
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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