Following Grayscale’s recent victory over federal securities regulators, Bloomberg analysts have raised the odds that a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be approved by the end of 2023.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, posted on X (Twitter) on August 30 that they have raised the probability to 75% from 65% previously due to the unanimous and decisive agreement of the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals . decisions made in recent cases.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein added in a separate report on Aug. 30: “The judges unanimously rejected the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces a deadline. .”
new: @JSeyff I put my odds on a spot bitcoin ETF launching this year to 75% (95% by the end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale’s victory into our previous 65% odds, the ruling was more unanimous and decisive than expected and left “very little leeway” for the SEC @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023
In his own X post, Seyffart added that the spot bitcoin ETF approval could be “completed” by the fourth quarter of 2024, estimating that the probability of approval by then has soared to 95%.
Balciunas added that the SEC’s denial is “politically untenable” given recent legal and public relations losses.
In addition to the legal damage, there is the PR loss (which is important because it sparks the narrative, changes minds). This was widely covered in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CNN, Associated Press, ABC and other mainstream media. We believe the legal and PR losses will make the denial politically indefensible. pic.twitter.com/Uarh5CszXC
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023
related: Grayscale wins court case, but what does it mean for spot Bitcoin ETF?
In the next five days, seven bitcoin spot ETF applications will be subject to a “first deadline” decision by the SEC, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.
Balchunas said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming bitcoin spot ETF applications.
But the most likely outcome is that we wake up unexpectedly and the SEC backs down and approves a bitcoin spot ETF, he said. explain.
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