Veteran analyst Filbfilb believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has a chance to reach $35,000 by the end of 2023, albeit with a dip in between.
In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite Decentrader revealed some BTC price targets that should resonate with the long-term holder community.
Bitcoin’s current uptrend faces multiple hurdles, with various key differences between the current cycle and previous cycles. This isn’t just a bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) crash; the entire macroeconomic environment looks markedly different than it did a few years ago.
Filbfilb predicts that the block subsidy halving in April 2024 will still have a cathartic effect on BTC price performance. By then, BTC/USD could even be trading as high as $46,000, but losses would “likely” follow.
Filbfilb thinks BTC price “could” drop to $20,000 range
Cointelegraph (CT): In a short time, you latest forecast Bitcoin Price Drops Again to “Crush Remaining Hopes.” Where do you see the long-term bottom?
Philb (FF): It depends; as we saw during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the bottom was just above $3,000, so I expect the post-crash FTX lows of around $16,000 to hold. However, avoiding a black swan event seems likely at lows around $20,000.
CT: Are you still looking forward to it? Price action reverses in Q4 As miners and smart people “buy the rumour” at the halving?
FF: According to the previous cycle, we found that the supply of new emissions in the market contracted before the halving. Coupled with increased speculative demand, I think this dynamic could repeat itself.
CT: Speaking of miners, what is your stance on price versus hashrate considering how the latter continue to hit new highs?
FF: I cannot attribute a direct correlation between hash rate and price.
CT: What surprised you about BTC’s price action this year compared to other years before the halving?
FF: The failure to break above the 100-week moving average so far is a notable divergence. In the past, this has somewhat validated bull markets. From a timing perspective, the rise from the 2022 low is in line with what we have seen before.
CT: There was a lot of discussion last week about the outcome of Grayscale’s lawsuit with the SEC — how important do you think this news really is? Do you think a US Bitcoin spot ETF is about to be approved?
FF: The SEC appears to have a “delay at all costs” policy, These now include unreasonable refusal.If you look at the performance of the room, i.e. BlackRock and others By filing numerous ETF filings, it seems unlikely that the largest institutional asset managers are doing little due diligence and expecting to fail. In my humble opinion, it’s just a question of “when” it gets approved, not “if”.
CT: You refer to US inflation as the “elephant in the room” of this cycle – how will that affect Bitcoin post-halving next year?
FF: The longer inflation and interest rates remain high, the less disposable income there is to invest in retail.In addition, due to risk free rate of return higher; this means that asset allocation to riskier assets becomes less attractive. The longer this status quo persists, the less capital there will be to seek out investments such as Bitcoin.
CT: What is your preferred noise-free indicator when tracking BTC price?
FF: At a high level, directional price momentum coupled with market positioning (such as long-short ratios, funding rates, and open interest) underpin my view of the market as a whole when determining short-term trends.
CT: What are your BTC price targets for the end of the year and the 2024 halving?
FF: Assuming no black swan events, the price will be around $35,000 by the end of this year, and could go as high as $46,000 sometime before the halving in Q1 2024.
DOGE, XRP Stand Out Among Altcoins
CT: Bitcoin aside, are you surprised by the collapse of the NFT market? Does it have a future?
Related: Bitcoin Price Indicator Replicates Last Move Before FTX Crash -25%
FF: I’m not surprised by the NFT debacle. I do think there is some utility in some forms of NFTs, such as ticketing and music apps; however, overpriced works of “art” have always been beyond my comprehension.
CT: Which altcoins do you think will have a particularly tough time in the new cycle?
FF: I’m mostly focused on Bitcoin at the moment; altcoins tend to act post-halving. However, I expect XRP (XRP) to do well in the next cycle as it pursues legal action with the SEC and effectively catches market share. I also don’t rule out Dogecoin (DOGE) doing well again, especially if Elon Musk integrates crypto into X.
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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