Bitcoin (BTC) was quiet over the weekend. In a recent post on X (formerly known as Twitter), CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that Bitcoin velocity has dropped to a 3-year low. This was either considered positive, as whales continued to hold their positions, or negative, as no transfer to new investors occurred, he said.
The range-bound moves continue to confuse investors about the next possible trend move. In response, analysts at JP Morgan made positive comments, saying that Bitcoin’s downtrend may be coming to an end. They believe that the decline in open interest in the CME Bitcoin futures contract indicates that the liquidation of longs is over.
As Bitcoin decides its next move, certain altcoins are showing signs of strength. If Bitcoin’s range falls, these altcoins could turn negative, but if Bitcoin rises or stays in the range, then they may present short-term trading opportunities.
Let’s examine the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that are likely to rise in the near term and identify the levels that bulls need to cross.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin formed an intraday candlestick pattern on Aug. 26, indicating indecision among bulls and bears about what to do next.
The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($27,222) and the relative strength index (RSI) in oversold territory suggest that bears are in command. However, the bulls are unlikely to surrender without a fight. They will do everything they can to defend the $24,800 level.
If the buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could start a stronger recovery. This could open the door for a rally towards the 50-day simple moving average ($28,888).
If the bears want to consolidate their position, they will have to pull the price below $24,800. If they do, the pair could start a decline towards $20,000.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint on the 4-hour chart. This indicates a balance between supply and demand. If the price breaks below $25,700, the pair could drop to $25,166 and then to $24,800.
Conversely, if the pair sustains above the moving averages, it will show that the selling has been absorbed by the bulls. There is a minor resistance at $26,314, but if broken, the pair could climb to $26,610 and then to $26,833.
Token Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern that will complete on a breakout and close above $1.53.
The rising 20-day EMA ($1.38) and the RSI in positive territory suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the buyers push the price above $1.53, the TON/USDT pair could start a new uptrend towards the pattern target of $1.91.
The bears may have other plans. They will try to hold the $1.53 level and pull the price below the moving averages. If they succeed in doing so, the pair could drop to $1.25 and eventually $1.15.
The 4-hour chart shows that the $1.53 level could act as a tough hurdle that buyers will have to cross. If the price turns down from this level but bounces off the 20 SMA, it will suggest that the bulls are buying minor dips. This could raise the possibility of a break above $1.53. The pair could then rally to $1.70.
Conversely, if the price declines and breaks below the 20 SMA, it will indicate that traders are taking profits near $1.53. The pair could then drop to the 50 moving average and then to $1.33.
Monero Price Analysis
Monero (XMR) has rebounded sharply from an uptrend line for the second time in the past few days, showing that bulls are fiercely defending the level.
The XMR/USDT pair could hit the 20-day EMA ($148), which could act as a formidable hurdle. If the bulls do not give up too much ground from this level, the prospect of a rally above the 20-day EMA increases. The pair could then climb to the 50-day moving average ($157), which could attract bearish selling.
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell into rallies. Then, the pair may retest the ascending trendline. Repeated retests of a support level tend to weaken it. If this level yields, the pair could drop to $125 and then to $115.
The bulls pushed the price above the moving averages on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that the bears may be losing control. There is strong resistance at $150, but if this level is breached, the pair could reach $160. The rising 20 EMA and RSI in positive territory suggest that buyers have a small advantage.
The first sign of weakness will be a breakout and close below the moving averages. This could pull the price to the uptrend line. A break below this support could lead the pair down to $125.
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Mantle Price Analysis
Mantle (MNT) has been in a strong downtrend since hitting a high of $0.60 on July 20. A sharp downtrend has pushed the RSI into oversold territory, suggesting a possible relief rally.
The outside candlestick pattern of August 25 shows that buyers are trying to take control. The MNT/USDT pair may first move up to the 20-day EMA ($0.45), an important level to watch. If buyers overcome this hurdle, the pair could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.48.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on every minor rally. This could lead to a retest of the $0.41 support. If this level breaks down, the pair could drop to $0.35.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have pushed the price above the moving averages but are struggling to start a runaway rally. This shows that the bears have not given up yet and they could pose a challenge at higher levels.
If the price breaks below the moving averages, it will give an advantage signal to the bears. This will increase the probability of a break below $0.41.
Alternatively, if the price sustains above the 20 SMA, it would suggest that the bulls are buying minor dips. The pair may then attempt a rally to $0.47 and then to $0.52.
Quantitative price analysis
The quantitative indicator (QNT) bounced off strong support at $95 on Aug. 17 and rose above its moving average on Aug. 26. This points to strong demand at higher levels.
The bulls will struggle to maintain the momentum and push the price towards the downtrend line. This level could witness an uphill battle between bulls and bears. If the price turns down from this level but bounces off the 20-day EMA ($101), it will signal a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
This could increase the chances of a rally above the downtrend line. If this happens, the QNT/USDT pair could start a rally towards $120. This positive view could be invalidated in the short-term if the price turns lower and breaks below the moving averages. The pair may then slip to the $95 support.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart have turned and the RSI is in positive territory, suggesting that the bulls are making a comeback. The pair may rebound to the downtrend line, where the bears may once again form a strong resistance.
On the downside, the moving averages are expected to act as strong support. A break and close below the 50 SMA would indicate that the recovery may be over. The pair may then drop to $98.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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