A classic on-chain indicator suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may next “sell” for at least $110,000 as the new bull cycle ends.
Data from on-chain analytics platforms look at bitcoin The terminal price showing Bitcoin hints that the price of Bitcoin may reach a high of six figures.
Will BTC prices hit six figures next cycle?
With Bitcoin price action hitting its highest level in 18 months, forecasters are already considering how high it could go in the coming months and even years.
The next collective subsidy will be targeted after its halving in April 2024, including $130,000, while the end of 2025 is the common deadline for the peak of the next cycle.
Analyzing terminal prices to understand the value Bitcoin founder Philip Swift has described it as a “simple” way to estimate the long-term Bitcoin price peak.
The terminal price is calculated based on Bitcoin’s so-called transfer price, which is calculated by dividing the number of days to destruction (CDD) by the existing supply.
CDD is a popular metric that measures how many days of dormancy are reset each time a certain amount of BTC moves on-chain. It can be used to measure the intentions and activities of the holder.
Terminal prices, created by Checkmate, chief on-chain analyst at data firm Glassnode, play out at the top of each BTC price cycle.
Not all all-time highs reach terminal prices, but BTC/USD did hit a trendline during the 2017 all-time high and the initial peak in April 2021. The current all-time high of $69,000, which occurred in November of that year, failed to be reached.
Therefore, Swift suggested that selling “closer” to the terminal price would be an appropriate policy. Its bear market counterpart, Equilibrium Price, also signals useful market bottoms.
Buy close to the equilibrium price and sell close to the terminal price.
Is it really that simple?#bitcoin cycle. pic.twitter.com/llHytNVuxr
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) November 10, 2023
As terminal prices increase over time, $110,000 may end up being a conservative target if the next all-time high only occurs later in the next cycle.
Waiting for Pi cycle to cross
exist A deeper analysis This week, Swift also highlighted that the Pi Cycle Top indicator provides reliable long-term high estimates.
Related: CME Bitcoin Futures OI ranks among the best, “real facts” drive institutional adoption
Pi uses two moving averages for forecasting, and their crossing signals the next high – albeit with only a few days’ notice.
“The Pi Cycle Top Indicator caught a lot of people off guard during the last cycle, myself included, because it once again identified a top perfectly! Will it identify a Bitcoin top again this cycle?” Swift asked.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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