in the latest episode market reportCointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman discusses Standard Chartered’s expectations for Bitcoin’s $120,000 price based on the impact of the halving. The increase in miner profitability resulting from the pre-halving rally will “reduce the net supply of Bitcoin,” the report said.
Pechman, on the other hand, does not acknowledge this argument, as mining difficulty will continue to increase, and the news confirms Riot Platform’s investment in new ASIC equipment. In fact, mining difficulty has increased by 73% over the past 12 months, while Bitcoin (BTC) prices have increased by 58%.
For bitcoin’s year-end price forecast of $50,000, Pechman believes the figure is too optimistic, as the chances of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by then are low. However, with potential inflows of $5 billion expected if the ETF is approved within the next six months, Bitcoin’s price could push above $70,000.
(embed) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2f9dI5WrfI(/embed)
For 2024, Pechman raised the chances of a spot bitcoin ETF approval to 30%, while Bloomberg analysts see an even higher chance of 50%. Given the sheer size of BlackRock and Fidelity, Pechman sees $10 billion in inflows in the ETF’s first few months as doable, suggesting Standard Chartered’s $120,000 forecast may be on the conservative side.
Expectations of ETF approval could play into the run-up to the halving, Pechman said, explaining why investors might be anticipating the move. Therefore, the pre-halving impact could be longer or shorter if investors sell before the event. Pechman’s advice is to avoid the fear of missing out or the fear of missing out. If you miss your entry, traders should wait for the USD cost moving average or wait and see.
Finally, Pechman analyzes the latest Glassnode on-chain analysis report Reaccumulate $30,000. “Reversion to the mean” is also prevalent in traditional markets, Pechman said. When investors lose the necessary conviction to adjust prices, they refer to the previous two or three year average.
To learn more about Pechman’s Bitcoin halving strategy and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETF approval, listen to market report, specifically for the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube Channel.
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