Investment management firm BlackRock has a 50% chance of getting approval for its spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
Balchunas’ forecast follows observations by Bloomberg Intelligence senior litigation analyst Elliott Stein, who now puts Grayscale’s chances of winning the lawsuit against the SEC at 70%.
Another reason we are giving a 50% chance of Spot Bitcoin ETF approval is our Senior Legal Analyst @NYCStein Giving Grayscale a 70% chance of winning the case against the SEC, the SEC may approve BlackRock’s ETF as a way to save face using a trusted “adult” TradFi and stick it to Grayscale @JSeyff pic.twitter.com/pHydOcpuQo
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 27, 2023
Balchunas explained that the SEC may look more favorably at BlackRock’s ETF filing, seeing it as a “face-saving” way to allow a “trusted ‘adult’ TradFi” firm to launch an ETF instead of Grayscale.
In addition to oral testimony heard by three U.S. federal appeals court judges on March 7, there has been a back-and-forth legal filing since Grayscale appealed the SEC’s decision to deny its application in June 2022.
“We believe Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning a lawsuit against the SEC regarding the firm’s attempt to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF.”
Stein added that Grayscale’s odds rose from 40 percent after oral arguments on both sides because “all three judges on the panel appeared to be on Grayscale’s side,” based on their “line of questioning,” Stein said.
Stein said Bloomberg expects to come to a conclusion in August.
Bitcoin ETF filings have been the industry’s focus of late, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie not far behind at $10 trillion. Asset manager BlackRock is awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
If the SEC finally approves applications from JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and Bank of America seeking to provide similar services, the digital asset market will face an onslaught from companies with a combined $27 trillion in assets under management.
1/ last week @黑石 Spot Bitcoin ETF filing is big news!
However, this is not the only story. Many of the largest financial institutions in the United States are actively working to offer services such as Bitcoin.
Take a quick look – $27 Trillion in Customer Assets! pic.twitter.com/azmHZmUL2a
— Meltum DeMiro (@Melt_Dem) June 26, 2023
related: CoinShares CSO: Firm With $27T Under Management Is Embracing Crypto
While the Grayscale case awaits judgment, GBTC has soared more than 134% to $19.47 in 2023, its highest price since around May 13, 2022, according to to Google Finance.
In addition, according to the data, on June 26, the discount of GBTC’s stock price to the overall net asset value fell to 31%, the lowest level since September 12 last year. data From YCharts. A lower trust discount rate means investor sentiment on the product may become more positive.
However, like most of the cryptocurrency market, GBTC is down more than 65% from its all-time high of $56.70.
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