Trending moves in asset classes attract traders, while lackluster price action prompts investors to stay on the sidelines. Bitcoin (BTC) has been largely stuck in a range-bound manner over the past few months, which may be one of the reasons for the decline in spot trading volume. Bloomberg reported on October 11 that Coinbase’s spot trading volume in the third quarter of 2023 plummeted 52% compared with the third quarter of 2022.
While uncertainty remains in the short term, traders need to remain vigilant as bullish consolidations are often followed by explosive price action. The only problem is that it is difficult to accurately predict the direction of the breakout. Considering bulls have not allowed Bitcoin to fall back below $25,000 over the past few months, this increases the likelihood of a breakout to the upside.
Investment legend Paul Tudor Jones recently said in an interview with CNBC that he is not bullish on the stock market because he believes that the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas may create risk aversion. Jones added that if this happened, it would be positive for gold and Bitcoin.
Will Bears Let Bitcoin Fall Below Immediate Support? Will this lead to further declines? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
On October 11, Bitcoin broke above the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,148), but bears were unable to pull the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($26,634).
Bulls successfully held the 50-day moving average on October 11 and October 12, but they are struggling to start a rebound. This indicates a lack of higher level demand.
Next, the bears will try to push the price below the 50-day EMA and eventually to the top. If this level fails, the BTC/USDT pair may retest the strong support at $26,000. This level is likely to witness aggressive buying from the bulls.
A rebound above the 20-day moving average would be the first sign of strength. The pair may then climb towards the overhead resistance at $28,143. This is an important level to watch, as a close above this level could signal the beginning of a short-term uptick.
Ethereum price analysis
Ethereum (ETH) fell to key support at $1,531 on October 12, but a small positive was that bulls managed to hold on to this level.
The RSI is showing signs of positive divergence, indicating that bearish momentum may be waning. The bulls will try to push the price towards the moving averages, while the bears may once again mount a strong defense.
If the price declines significantly from the 20-day EMA ($1,606), it would indicate that bears are still dominant. Subsequently, the ETH/USDT pair is likely to break below $1,531 and start a decline towards $1,368.
If bulls want to arrest the decline, they will have to push the price above the moving averages. The pair may then climb towards $1,746 and bulls may once again face strong selling from bears.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) fell to strong support at $203, but the long tail on the candlestick suggests that bulls are strongly protecting this level.
Bulls must quickly push the price above the moving averages and downtrend line to signal that bears may get out of hand. The BNB/USDT pair may then start to rise towards $235, followed by $250.
On the contrary, if the price turns downward from the moving average, it means that every small increase is being sold. A break below the $203 support would complete the descending triangle pattern and could start a decline to $183.
Ripple Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) fell below the uptrend line on October 11, showing that bullish pressure is easing. This decline suggests that the price will continue to fluctuate between $0.41 and $0.56 for some time.
There is support at $0.46, but if broken, the XRP/USDT pair could fall to the important $0.41 level. Bulls are expected to buy aggressively on this dip, which may keep the range-bound movement intact.
On the bright side, a breakout and close above the moving averages would be the first sign of strength. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the price towards the overhead resistance at $0.56. A breakout and close above this level would signal the start of a new potential uptrend.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) fell below the 20-day EMA ($21.72) on October 12, indicating that bears are maintaining pressure.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Bears will attempt to consolidate their positions by dragging the price below the 50-day moving average ($20.44). If they do, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $17.33.
On the other hand, if the price rises and moves above $22.50, the short-term advantage will be in favor of buyers. The pair may then move up to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) formed a long tail on consecutive candlesticks since October 9, but bulls failed to initiate a recovery. This indicates a lack of higher level demand.
The ADA/USDT pair is approaching the $0.24 support level with the RSI showing signs of positive divergence. This suggests selling pressure is easing and a relief rally is possible. The first stop on the upside may be the moving average. If this resistance is exceeded, the pair is likely to reach $0.27 and then $0.28.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.24, it would indicate that the bears are in no mood to relax. This could clear the way for a drop to $0.22 and eventually $0.20.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading below the $0.06 support since October 9, suggesting that the market has settled for lower levels.
The bears will attempt to sink the price down to the important support level at $0.055. This level is likely to witness strong buying from the bulls. If the price rebounds from this level, the DOGE/USDT pair is likely to consolidate between $0.055 and $0.06 for some time.
The downward sloping moving averages and the RSI near oversold territory suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the bulls want to stage a comeback, they must quickly push the price above the moving averages. This could start a rebound towards $0.07.
related: Why is Bitcoin price stagnant?
Coin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) has been in a correction phase over the past few days. On October 12, traders’ profit booking pushed the price below the 50-day moving average ($1.98).
Bulls are trying to regain this level in the coming days and push the price back above the moving averages. If they succeed in doing this, it would indicate that a break below the 50-day moving average could be a bear trap. This could open the door for the price to rise towards $2.31.
On the contrary, if the TON/USDT pair turns negative from the moving average, it means that market sentiment has turned negative and every easing rally is sold off. This would increase the risk of a drop to $1.60.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) continued its decline over the past few days and reached a target close to $3.50 on October 12. This level may act as solid support.
On the way up, the 20-day EMA ($3.95) is a key level to watch. If the price falls from the 20-day EMA, this will indicate that traders are selling on the highs. This could bolster prospects for a break below $3.50.
Conversely, if the bulls push and sustain prices above the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that the market has rejected lower levels. This could trap aggressive bears, causing them to approach the downtrend line.
Polygon Price Analysis
Polygon (MATIC) continues to weaken towards key support at $0.49, suggesting bulls are not risking buying at higher levels.
Within a range, traders typically buy near support and sell near resistance. In this case, bulls may buy the dip at $0.49. If the price rises strongly from this level, the MATIC/USDT pair may hit the moving average.
If the price drops significantly from the moving average, the likelihood of a break below $0.49 will increase. If this happens, the pair could plummet to $0.45.
Conversely, a bounce above the moving averages would indicate range-bound action that could continue for several days.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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