A new week begins for Bitcoin (BTC), leaving traders speculating as it approaches its highest level in 18 months – what happens next?
Bitcoin prices have held higher after surging above $38,000 last week, but since then, a testing “micro range” has pitted bulls and bears in a battle.
The key short-term question for market participants now is whether there will be a deeper pullback or whether $40,000 will be hit, leaving the naysayers at bay.
Various potential catalysts emerging in the coming days will help influence the emergence of Bitcoin trends, and underneath, there are growing signs that the market will receive a boost.
Volatility will emerge later on at the monthly close, but before then, a series of macroeconomic events have the power to inject some unexpected price action.
Cointelegraph explores these questions and more in its weekly digest of triggers for Bitcoin price action in the week ahead.
Monthly close close to BTC, price up less than 10%
The monthly close is a key diary date for traders this week, with Bitcoin at a crossroads.
As Cointelegraph reported, untested downside liquidity levels and the upside temptation of $40,000 (surrounded by resistance) have led to a stubborn daily trading range.
Neither bulls nor bears can escape the increasingly narrow BTC/USD channel, and even new daily highs are few and short-lived.
From Cointelegraph Markets Pro and trading view show.
For popular trader Skew, now is the time for buying momentum to return.
“Spot buyers lead the rally and eventually permanent buyers become forced bidders; most shorts are forced out of the market,” he wrote in part specialized analysis on X (formerly Twitter).
“Now, as we go into the EU meeting and the U.S. meeting, it will be important to see if there are any spot bids.”
Skew similarly references liquidity blocks above and below spot prices, with $37,000 and $38,000 being key levels to watch.
“There’s a lot of bid liquidity below $37,000, so if spot takers continue to be net sellers, that’s going to be the impetus needed to meet bids below those limits,” he said of order books on Binance, the world’s largest exchange Written when writing.
“As for liquidity demand, that is, supply, it remains between $38,000 and $40,000, which is an important area for upside.”
With just days left until the monthly close, Bitcoin is up 7.8% so far this month, putting November 2023 gains firmly in line with average gains compared to past years.
Data from monitoring resources coin glass Showing that November is typically characterized by stronger BTC price action, it can go up as well as down.
At the same time, the overall increase in the fourth quarter was close to 40%.
Fed’s main inflation indicator leads macro catalysts
As November comes to a close, Bitcoin traders are in for a classic macro week, complete with volatility triggers.
The Federal Reserve will receive some key data on inflation in the coming days that will influence its interest rate policy decision next month.
Following comments from senior Fed officials this week, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on December 1.
The data that the market is most interested in may be October third quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), released on November 29 and November 30 respectively.
Previously, U.S. macro data began to show that inflation was falling faster than market expectations, leading to a positive revaluation of risk assets.
Main events this week:
1. New Home Sales Data – Monday
2. Consumer confidence data – Tuesday
3. Third quarter GDP data – Wednesday
4. PCE inflation data – Thursday
5. Speech by Fed Chairman Powell – Friday
6. A total of 10 Fed speeches
We are two weeks away from the December Federal Reserve meeting.
— KobeissiLetter (@KobeissiLetter) November 26, 2023
The Kobeissi Letter, a financial commentary resource, summed up X: “Volatility will persist throughout the trading week.”
Data from CME Group Fed Watch Tool Currently, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates at current levels is almost unanimous at 99.5%.
GBTC pay attention to BTC parity
While Bitcoin is still awaiting approval from U.S. regulators for the country’s first spot-priced exchange-traded fund (ETF), the market continues to show a significant improvement in sentiment.
This is most evident in the largest Bitcoin investment vehicle, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Since GBTC itself will be converted into a spot ETF, it is quickly approaching parity with its underlying asset against BTC/USD.
According to data from CoinGlass, as of November 24, GBTC stock price fell by nearly 50%, only 8% discount to the net asset value (NAV).
The fund’s resurgence laid the key foundation for the successful launch of ETFs and the first real, large-scale institutional interest in Bitcoin.
William Clemente, co-founder of cryptocurrency research firm Reflexivity, said: “It seems that the market does expect this ETF to be approved soon.” reacted Weekend data.
However, as far as watershed moments go, the dates worth noting right now all fall after the New Year.
In the latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital said January 3, 2024 would be a timely approval date, which coincides with the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin’s genesis block.
Thereafter, January 10 marked the provisional deadline for the first spot ETF, ARK Invest, as “the final deadline for ARK applications was included in the first batch of approvals.”
“If ARK is rejected and the rest are delayed again, the true make-or-break deadline is March 15, 2024 – BlackRock and the leading candidates will face their own final deadlines,” it added.
Bitcoin hashrate crosses 500 exahash watershed
Bitcoin miners are deploying record amounts of processing power to the network ahead of the upcoming block subsidy halving in April 2024.
Hash rate – estimated measures The speed of this deployment is now at its highest ever, surpassing 500 exahash per second (EH/s) for the first time this month.
This achievement not only represents a psychological milestone, but also highlights miners’ confidence in future profitability – even if BTC price performance is still 50% below its peak.
Meanwhile, outflows from known miner wallets to exchanges are at their lowest level in seven years, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
“Flows from Bitcoin miner wallets to exchange wallets ultimately represent the activity of these entities on the open market,” contributing analyst Caue Oliveira wrote in a report. shorthand Market updates.
“Tokens entering exchanges increase Bitcoin liquidity on these platforms, thereby creating additional selling pressure on the market.”
Oliveira pointed out that miners will always sell some of their Bitcoin holdings, but the current average monthly trading volume of 90 BTC is the lowest level since 2017.
Bitcoin transaction balances resume downward trend
After a month of turmoil caused by withdrawal closures and legal actions against some of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin balances are trending downward again.
RELATED: Bitcoin Hits $1M After ETF Approval?Bitcoin Price Predictions Vary Hugely
In line with the overall five-year trend, BTC shares on exchanges are continuing to trend lower.
According to the latest data from on-chain analytics companies glass nodeAs of November 26, major exchanges held a total of 2.332 million BTC.
Aside from the recent lows in October, this is the lowest amount of BTC available since April 2018. In March 2020, following the COVID-19 cross-market crash, Bitcoin’s total volume peaked at 3.321 million BTC.
November was complicated by traders’ reactions to Binance receiving a record $4.3 billion fine, and Poloniex and HTX halting withdrawals entirely following the hack.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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