Lianyungang, China – January 17, 2024 – On January 17, 2024, a large number of cars were ready for export at Lianyungang Port, Jiangsu Province, China. (Image source should be CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images
BEIJING – China will not overtake Japan as the world’s top auto exporter in 2023, although it is close to overtaking it, data released this month showed.
Japanese customs data showed that the country exported 5.97 million vehicles last year, exceeding the 5.22 million vehicle exports reported by Chinese customs data.
The Ministry of Commerce predicts that gasoline vehicles will account for more than 70% of my country’s automobile exports in 2023, with new energy vehicle exports growing rapidly.
Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said many gasoline-powered cars are sold in Russia.
“After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many car manufacturers left the country, with the result that the gap was filled by Chinese manufacturers,” she said. “Car shipments to Russia in the first 11 months of 2023 were by value The calculation is about six times that of 2022.”
Tan said Mexico is also the main destination for China’s gasoline vehicle exports, with car exports to Belgium and the United Kingdom mainly consisting of new energy vehicles.
In fact, Mexico is the second-largest destination for Chinese cars after Russia, said Jorge Guajardo, a Washington, D.C.-based partner at Dentons Global Advisors and a former Mexican ambassador to China.
Guajardo said in a phone interview that the rapidly increasing share of Chinese-made cars in Mexico’s auto market is a “new phenomenon” because the Central American country has historically been highly protective of its auto industry, Mexico’s largest. employer.
While he said it’s unclear exactly why Chinese cars are growing so quickly in Mexico, part of the blame lies with international automakers.
“The factories they had in China were meant to serve the Chinese market, but now they’ve lost them, and you’re going to start exporting that capacity out of China,” he said, noting that he believes “China’s auto manufacturing capacity is severely excess.”
Electric car sales
By the end of 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 40% of new passenger car sales, much higher than About 7% in the United States
A CNBC analysis late last year found that the rapid shift to electric vehicles is rapidly eating into the market share of international auto giants, which have been slower to release new models in the category.German Volkswagen One of the foreign car companies’ sales in China could be on track for its worst performance in years.
China Battery and Electric Vehicle Company BYD Also climbed to the top Tesla The company’s total vehicle production will exceed 3 million vehicles by 2023, and electric vehicle sales will surpass the U.S. automaker’s in the fourth quarter.
According to CNBC public data calculations, BYD’s overseas new energy passenger vehicle sales will exceed 242,000 units in 2023. The company did not disclose comparable figures for 2022.
Local market and overseas market
Francois Huang, senior economist at Allianz Trading, said Chinese automakers’ share of the domestic auto market could increase to 75% by 2030.
She said this would lead to a nearly 40% drop in sales of European cars in China.
As Chinese-made electric cars also extend to Europe, the EU launches an investigation into the role of government subsidies production of these electric vehicles.
“I think they’re going to realize pretty quickly that they’re targeting the wrong area,” Guajardo said.
“The Chinese-made electric cars are superior to any operator’s (European) electric cars, so you just want to hold back the better stuff,” he said, adding that those electric cars don’t end up making up the bulk of China’s car exports .
Guajardo expects these developments to lead to a trade war, at least as far as China sells cars to Mexico.
“I hope it’s electric cars because if they are electric cars, they are not only good, but they are a quality product that protects the environment,” Guajardo said. “Gasoline-powered cars are just competition with Mexican products.”
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