This week, Chinese tourists are returning home after the “National Day Golden Week” holiday. The roughly week-long period tied to China’s National Day on Oct. 1 is an important signal for Chinese consumer confidence as millions of people travel domestically and abroad.
However, this year’s Golden Week – the first since China relaxed strict COVID-19 controls last year – proved to be a bit of a disappointment. Travel data fell short of official forecasts, suggesting Chinese consumers are not yet ready to fully start spending again amid a sluggish economy.
data Data released by China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Monday showed that during the eight-day holiday starting from September 29, tourists made 826 million trips and generated revenue of approximately US$103 billion. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism said the figures showed that the number of travelers increased by 4.1% and 1.5% respectively.Tourism revenue growth percentage compared to 2019.
Chen Hunter, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Greater China, said that the return of Golden Week consumption “sends some positive signals in terms of tourism expenditure, consumption and retail sales,” indicating that “domestic consumption will recover steadily this year.”
Still, officials hope for a bigger recovery this year. Before the holiday begins, official Passenger trips are expected to be close to 900 million times, with revenue of approximately US$107 billion.
In 2019, the last Golden Week before the epidemic affected travel, Chinese tourists made 782 million domestic trips. according to Ministry of Tourism of China.
International travel is also recovering, but remains below pre-pandemic levels. leaving the country Data from China’s National Immigration Administration shows the travel rate is 85% of 2019 levels.According to statistics, travel to popular long-distance destinations such as Switzerland, the UK and France is growing fastest compared to the Labor Day holiday in May Data release Provided by travel booking company Trip.com.
Boon Sian Chai, vice president of international marketing at Trip.com Group, said visa backlogs and a lack of international flights are limiting the recovery of international travel.There are flights to and from China still not there levels before the epidemic, while overseas has been slow Approving a large number of new visa applications from interested Chinese tourists.
Although official media Famous In terms of “Golden Week” data, Chen was only cautiously optimistic about China’s economy, pointing to weak consumption data in other areas such as box office revenue.
“Overall confidence still relies on the real estate industry and the labor market,” he said. “We remain relatively cautious and believe recovery depends on renewed confidence in both industries.”
China’s real estate industry, which accounts for about one-third of China’s GDP, is facing a serious crisis of confidence. China Evergrande Group, one of China’s largest private developers, defaulted in 2021, triggering contagion across the industry. The recent debt problems of another major developer, Country Garden, have once again raised concerns about the stability of the industry.
The country’s economy still suffers from a youth unemployment crisis. In June, more than 20% of people aged 16 to 24 were unemployed. (In August, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said it would temporarily stop counting youth unemployment rates).
Together, these issues have triggered a crisis of confidence that has hampered China’s post-pandemic recovery.”The disruption caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and the downturn in the real estate industry over the past three years have had a terrible impact on the balance sheets of Chinese households,” said Alfredo Montufa-Heru, program director of the Conference Board’s China Economic and Business Center. influence.”, said before wealth.
China will report its latest monthly Friday’s consumer price index. Next month, economists will see another major signal for China’s consumption: Singles’ Day, the world’s largest online shopping festival, will begin on November 11.
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