If 2023 has taught Fox News’ operators anything, it’s the importance of being able to transform.
Former President Donald Trump’s decision Skip Wednesday’s first debate The end of the 2024 presidential primary could cost Fox a significant portion of its late-summer audience. To make matters worse for the network, Trump talked about doing an online interview with former Fox star Tucker Carlson at the same time.
Trump’s announcement on Sunday came as no surprise. Fox debate hosts Brett Beyer and Martha McCallum have been preparing for two events — one with him and one without him.
Several Fox figures publicly urged Trump to attend the event this summer, and Fox executives privately made the same argument to the former president.His former press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, called Trump’s decision a ‘Great political miscalculation’ Fox on Monday.
Although Trump leads other Republicans in the polls, McCallum warned potential viewers not to view the debate without him as a junior varsity event.she quotes a recent poll Nearly half of Trump supporters in Iowa said they were open to other candidates, according to photos taken by The New York Times and Siena College between July 23 and 27.
“I don’t think as members of the media or people who watch politics, we shouldn’t be saying, ‘Oh, it’s all over, these people aren’t going to be the nominees,'” she said. “It’s too early to say that.”
Trump’s first appearance in republican primary debate In 2015, Fox brought 24 million viewers to Fox. Given that his novelty has worn off and the cable news audience dwindles, trying to hit that number again is next to impossible. Yet when Trump didn’t watch a debate on Fox in January 2016, only 12.5 million people watched it, a sign of his appeal.
This summer’s debate is expected to be a beacon for Fox News, which earlier this year had months of embarrassing headlines involving Dominion Voting Systems’ lawsuit over the network’s coverage of Trump’s false claims after the 2020 election. defamation suit.
Fox agreed to pay Dominion $787.5 million as a settlement when the trial was about to begin.
The lawsuit had little noticeable impact on Fox viewers, but when Fox fired Carlson a week later without explanation, those fans strike back. The network has never publicly explained why Carlson was fired, although Carlson’s appearance in court documents released alongside the Dominion case has led to some public theories being floated.
As in the past, Fox relied on its replacements to build a new lineup that debuted in July, giving popular “Five Five” panelists Jesse Waters and Greg Gutfeld a prime-time slot. program. Their show, which has Sean Hannity on the agenda, continues to deliver scathing conservative commentary.
Fox averaged 2.5 million viewers in prime time this year after Carlson was fired, and 1.6 million in the nearly two months before the new lineup premiered. The show’s prime-time audience has climbed back to 2.2 million, according to Nielsen.
“There is a sense of stability in the new lineup,” said Steve KrakauerPublisher of The Fourth Watch newsletter and author of Unmasked: How Media Messed With Power, Abandoned Principles, and Lost People.
How much of Trump’s four criminal indictments will be discussed on stage in Milwaukee is an open question, depending in part on what his opponents want to talk about.
Even if Trump didn’t attend Wednesday, “even if he wasn’t on stage, he would be on stage,” Beyer said in an interview.
A Siena College Times investigation suggests it won’t be a hot topic among Fox’s general audience. The poll found that 78 percent of those who get news regularly from Fox News said Trump had not committed any serious federal crimes, and 80 percent said the Republican Party should support Trump in those cases.
Krakauer said Fox isn’t alone in the medium wanting to give viewers what they want, and suggested there may be some “sue fatigue” among viewers.
Even a debate that avoids prosecution as a major topic could end up featuring Trump on whether he has been successful in tackling issues like immigration or the economy, he said.
Beyer said such poll results would not factor into how he and McCallum structure the debate.
“Of course we’ll bring it up,” McCallum said. “I expect the candidates to partly raise that issue as well. In terms of prosecution fatigue, we’re going to be talking about a lot of other issues on stage, and it’s certainly not going to be the bulk of the night.”
It’s not unusual for the event to have a live audience. But this spring, the crowd at CNN’s Trump town hall in New Hampshire was a distraction, not a high point.
“If we have to silence them at some point, well, that’s part of the moderator’s job,” McCallum said. “But I think it will actually help the night.”
Both Bayer and McCallum have had these debates before. Beyer even had the same experience in January 2016, preparing for Trump’s arrival before Trump’s exit.
Both have similar goals, familiar to hosts but often self-evident.
“If I could have someone at the end of the debate say, ‘You know what, this was tough but fair, I’d be really happy,'” Beyer said. “I’d be happier if it was a story that wasn’t about the host. “
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