Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week on a positive note, with traders getting the first green weekly candle in over a month.
After weakness in August and early September, BTC price strength appears to be gradually improving, with BTC/USD climbing to $27,000.
The solid weekly close provides the backdrop for an interesting few days ahead, which will include important U.S. macroeconomic events as potential volatility drivers.
The Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rate policy, and any surprises could have a significant impact on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Elsewhere, things are looking promising for Bitcoin, with network fundamentals set to surge to new records.
The power behind the scenes is also reflected in the behavior of holders, with the number of wallets continuing to surge regardless of Bitcoin price trends.
As Bitcoin heads into its most anticipated week of September, Cointelegraph explores these topics and more.
Traders see Bitcoin price as ‘local bottom’
Bitcoin was little volatile over the weekend, but the calm trading environment has been challenged in the new week, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph Markets Pro showed trading view show.
The weekly close on September 17 was quickly replaced by an upward move, and at the time of writing, bulls are trying to build on it to break out to new month-to-date highs.
As a result, popular trader Credible Crypto said that a “local bottom” is likely to form in the weekend area.
“The area continues to be protected and buyers are stepping in here again. In my opinion the conditions are there for the local bottom/base to form,” he Tell X overnight subscriber count, and a chart of order book liquidity at Binance, the world’s largest exchange.
“I think we’ll probably be back to 27k+ soon.”
previous post famous Weekend levels lacked short commitments, while bid liquidity improved.
Meanwhile, the weekly close has Eight Trading Company founder and CEO Michaël van de Poppe excited, who sees the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) key support level.
“Bitcoin closed above the 200-week moving average, which is critical for continued bullishness,” he explained.
“We should continue to do this next week with prices starting to look similar to the 2015/2016 cycle.”
Van de Poppe uploaded a chart showing the interaction between spot prices and the 200-week moving average (currently $25,700) since 2020.
“The market is consolidating, with Bitcoin closing the week well above the 200-week moving average. The likelihood of a correction being completed is increasing day by day.” Add to In a separate post.
Some remain sober about Bitcoin’s prospects by 2024. Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to focus on the possibility of a bearish double top pattern on the weekly time frame.
“There is no doubt that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bull market,” he wrote Part of the weekend X analysis.
“The long-term outlook is bullish. Medium term? We may or may not get the last major correction in the next seven months. Will it happen? If it does, then it would be wise to at least be prepared.”
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) volatility, chance of pausing rate hikes 99%
The topic on everyone’s lips this week is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), which will meet to decide on future interest rates.
If history is any guide, the September 20 decision will trigger at least some form of volatility in risk assets, and Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are no exception.
The picture at the latest FOMC meeting was mixed – last week’s macro data showed inflation was higher than expected, but the market overwhelmingly believes the Fed will not raise interest rates further to combat inflation.
According to data from CME Group FedWatch Toolthe probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is almost unanimous.
This may reduce the impact of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) events, but conversely, curve decisions that run counter to market assessments will be more strongly affected.
“This week sets the stage for the rest of 2023,” the financial commentary resource “Kobeissi Letter” concluded, while highlighting upcoming macro data and more.
“The Fed’s guidance on Wednesday sets the tone for the next few meetings. Expect big moves this week.”
Main events this week:
1. Building Permits Data – Tuesday
2. Housing starts data – Tuesday
3. Fed interest rate decision – Wednesday
4. Fed Press Conference – Wednesday
5. Initial jobless claims – Thursday
6. Existing Home Sales Data – Thursday
This week marks the start of the rest of 2023.
— KobeissiLetter (@KobeissiLetter) September 17, 2023
In explaining the likely outcome of the FOMC, Cryptocurrency and Macro Insights resource Econometrics suggests that market odds are not surprising based on the Fed’s signal.
“There will be no rate hike at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting. That’s how fed funds futures are pricing in,” wrote In the weekend.
“In fact, they’ve been pretty consistent on this for a long time. The fact that the latest inflation data isn’t exactly going in the right direction doesn’t change anything.”
The accompanying chart added that the market “never had any doubt” about what would happen in September.
Difficulty and computing power return to new records
Returning to Bitcoin, the coming week will see a return to the basic “up only” growth style.
The mining difficulty dropped by 2.65% during the last automatic adjustment two weeks ago, which will offset its losses on September 19.
The latest estimates come from Bitcoin Network It indicates that the difficulty will increase by 4.6%, reaching a new all-time high in the process.
In 2023, the broad upward trend in difficulty was only briefly challenged, although spot price action brought more challenging conditions.
The same is true for hashrate (the estimated processing power deployed by miners), which continues to set new records of its own.
The significant spike in the new week became a talking point in itself, adding to optimism among commentators.
Who is the reason for the nearly 20% increase in computing power? Who do you think it is?
It’s surreal.#btc #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/paIwb57DNm
— Bitcoin Bootcamp (@BTCbootcamp) September 17, 2023
Nicholas Cary, co-founder of Bitcoin data resource Blockchain.com, said: “The Bitcoin network hash rate is at an all-time high.” famous earlier this month.
“What does this mean? Difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block, or in more technical terms, how difficult it is to find a hash below a given target. High difficulty means more is required computing power to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure against attacks.”
Blockchain estimated As of September 17, hash rate was 422 exahashes per second (EH/s), while BTC.com currently puts the figure at 430 EH/s.
Number of Bitcoin addresses hits multi-year high
Just as Bitcoin miners can’t be stopped, the user base seems to be growing.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the number of newly created BTC wallets is now at its highest level since late 2017, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $20,000.
Even the later $69,000 failed to spark such a big response in new address creation, according to the company’s address tracking metrics.
However, active addresses did mimic conditions seen in mid-2021, returning to these levels for the first time this month.
The data is uploaded to X, by Andre Dragosch, director of research at cryptocurrency investment firm Deutsche Digital Assets. Dragosch questioned whether BTC’s price performance would replicate the returns of the Glassnode indicator.
“The number of addresses worth 0.01 BTC or less is at an all-time high,” said James Straten, a research and data analyst at cryptocurrency insights firm CryptoSlate. Add to Regarding further Glassnode data.
“Over the past five years, the accumulation of this group has reached around fifth place. This asset continues to be monopolized by a small group of people.”
Crypto fear is never far away
While things may be looking up for the Bitcoin ecosystem, average cryptocurrency investors have yet to regain confidence.
Related: Bitcoin Price Set to Hit All-Time High Ahead of Halving in 2024 – New Prediction
According to the latest data Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed IndexThe sentiment for cryptocurrencies remains “fear.”
The level of cold feet is not severe – the index normalizes sentiment on a scale of 0-100 and is currently just below the “neutral” 50 mark.
Nonetheless, fear has dominated since mid-August, with prices triggering key influences.
Meanwhile, prominent trader and cryptocurrency analyst Titan revealed that there is a “striking correlation” between this year’s environment and that on the eve of previous Bitcoin bull runs, while analyzing net unrealized gains and losses data on Bitcoin’s supply.
“I think we may see similar price action to what Bitcoin did in the first two cycles,” he commented as part of the forecast.
#bitcoin Unrealized net gains and losses are significantly related to
– In 2012 and 2016, as NUPL contracted between optimism/anxiety and hope/fear zones, BTC price consolidated before resuming its rise.
– In 2019, as NUPL surged, Bitcoin prices rose without… pic.twitter.com/110OMhdGcW— Cryptocurrency Titan (@Washigorira) September 17, 2023
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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