March 13, 2025
Funding rates echo K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) is still heading higher near $37,000 into the new week as macroeconomic data returns.

The largest cryptocurrency continued to hit its highest level in 18 months, with excitement over possible U.S. approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) driving sentiment.

However, the situation is becoming increasingly greedy, as according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the situation is consistent with what was seen when BTC price action hit its current all-time highs in late 2021.

What could change the status quo and create volatility in the coming days?

External triggers are more likely this week. A flood of US macro data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has the potential to disrupt any sideways trading activity in risk assets.

Several Fed officials are also due to speak, while the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues.

Meanwhile, on the institutional front, Bitcoin’s future looks firmly bullish – with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) NAV approaching parity ahead of the expected ETF approval.

Can the Bitcoin market remain stable and avoid a sharp retracement? Cointelegraph takes a look at Bitcoin price volatility catalysts on a weekly basis.

Funding rates sound warning, BTC price hovers at $37,000

On November 12, Bitcoin’s weekly closing price hit an 18-month high, but what followed was not a rise that followed other recent closing prices.

BTC/USD 1 hour chart. Source: TradingView

During the Asian trading session, BTC/USD fell below $37,000, remaining firmly within the trading range it had been in throughout the weekend, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph Markets Pro. trading view.

Prominent trader and analyst Credible Crypto is closely following developments and says this will change soon. The reason, he said, is that open interest (OI) is currently at multi-day highs, which is prone to volatility.

“Open interest has risen from the lows, which means more positions can be squeezed out,” part of X’s post read.

Credible Crypto has a price target of $36,600, a potential local low, and another article adds that Bitcoin is “very close” to further gains.

BTC/USD chart with OI. Source: Credible Crypto/X

Countering the optimism in short-term market behavior are funding rates. Not only are these positive, but they are the highest levels since Bitcoin’s all-time highs in November 2021, indicating the overall disadvantage of going long BTC at current levels.

“Financing rates increased across the board,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented and data from monitoring resources coin glass.

“While this is not always the direct cause of a flush, ideally things will return to normal after more range adjustments. It’s worth noting that this can continue during strong uptrends Weeks or even months.”

Cryptocurrency funding rates as of 7am UTC on November 13 (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Popular analyst Caue Oliveira also noted the significant situation on the funding front and told traders to proceed with caution.

“This value indicates widespread optimism in the market, driving a large number of futures contracts to bet on rising prices,” he wrote in a note. Get market updates quickly On November 10, the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant was released.

“However, this setup is dangerous as it could signal overly bullish sentiment and price contraction could trigger a cascade of liquidations.”

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes amid the turmoil of a new U.S. government shutdown

The third week of November was a classic macro setup – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) led to a flood of data releases that have triggered moves in risk assets in the past.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, released on November 14, is closely watched by inflation monitoring agencies, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released a day later.

A number of Fed officials will also take the stage to speak during and after the data release, providing the Fed’s immediate views on the forces of inflation.

“It’s a big week for inflation and the Fed,” financial commentary resource Kobeissi Letter concluded in uploading important macro diary dates to X.

Meanwhile, popular trader Skew noted that despite some unpleasant surprises in October’s data, inflation will fall back.

In theory, this should provide a tailwind for the cryptocurrency market, but as Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s response to larger target misses has been muted this year.

Adding to the mix is ​​another familiar wildcard — the impending partial shutdown of the U.S. government. Although there has been no consensus so far this year, the need to reach a spending agreement in Congress before the Nov. 17 deadline has once again become practical.

If this happens, the U.S. government shutdown will be the fourth in the past decade.

Altcoins take center stage as crypto capital inflows return

Capital inflows into the sector are being closely monitored as cryptocurrency market participants keep their eye on potential ETF approvals.

Buyer interest is a key factor in the bull market’s resurgence, and the reversal in capital inflows has attracted mainstream attention.

“For the first time in years, the cryptocurrency market is starting to see significant new liquidity,” Corbisi wrote in a note. Dedicated X post.

It noted that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by $600 billion since November 2022, following the FTX crash and Bitcoin cycle low of $15,600.

It added: “It’s up 75% in one year, and Bitcoin is up 120% over the last year.”

“This comes after years of consistent outflows from the cryptocurrency market. One thing we’ve seen many times in the past? A return to liquidity always leads to historic moves in cryptocurrencies.”

It’s not just Bitcoin that’s showing potential, traders and analysts say, the altcoin market is waking up.

While Bitcoin’s dominance of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization remains strong, analysts CryptoCon advise against taking this as a sign of relative weakness in altcoins.

“Some people tell you to ignore altcoins completely because Bitcoin’s dominance is rising. As you may have noticed, this is a serious mistake,” he Tell There are X subscribers over the weekend.

The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin’s price action each year during the halving cycle, with altcoins showing specific reactions as well.

Bitcoin halving cycle theoretical diagram. Source: CryptoCon/X

According to CryptoCon, Bitcoin will reach an “early” cycle top in mid-2024, and altcoins are unlikely to be under-delivered.

“I think altcoins have probably bottomed out in the cycle now and those who do nothing are going to have to buy higher,” he continued.

“Imagine someone telling me, ‘Ignore the altcoins that are at the bottom and only buy Bitcoin that has gone up.’” That’s what happened this year. 2024 is just around the corner and altcoins are ready to get even stronger! “

Bitcoin market capitalization dominance chart. Source: TradingView

GBTC discount breaks through two-year low

Despite a lack of retail interest, Bitcoin’s return to the mainstream spotlight is measured by its largest institutional investment vehicle.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is rapidly approaching parity with Bitcoin’s spot price net asset value (NAV).

In the past, GBTC’s implied share price traded higher than BTC/USD, but over the past two years, the premium has turned into a discount, at one point approaching 50%.

The discount to NAV is now just 10.35%, the smallest discount since August 2021.

GBTC Premium vs. Asset Holdings vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Commenting on the phenomenon, William Clemente, co-founder of market research firm Reflexivity, linked GBTC’s reversal of fortunes to the anticipated approval of the ETF.

“Currently, it appears that the market pricing BTC ETF is very likely to be approved,” he said. wrote last week.

Grayscale continues to demand the right to convert GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Cryptocurrency investors remain greedy

After a record-breaking long crypto bear market, the desire to squeeze profits cannot be ignored.

Related: Will BTC price “collapse” before ETF listing or drop to $150,000 in 2025?Bitcoin predictions diverge

This continues appropriately as shown in Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Indexthe classic market sentiment indicator is currently at levels last seen in November 2021.

While not yet reaching extreme levels, the index is a clear indication that the average cryptocurrency investor is approaching a state of irrational exuberance.

On November 13, Fear and Greed had a score of 72/100, and on November 6 it was 74/100.

Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Commenting on market psychology earlier this month, popular trader Pentoshi reminded X readers that extremes of fear and greed can provide the “best opportunities” for those who can grasp and exploit market swings at extreme emotional levels.

Typically, a trend reversal occurs in the cryptocurrency market when the index moves below 10/100 or above 90/100.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.