The Alternative for Germany had long seemed to be little more than a regional remnant, the voice of disaffected voters in the former communist east, but a political earthquake on Sunday night changed all that.
The far-right AfD’s vote share increased significantly in two key elections in the wealthy, heavily industrialized western half of Germany, confirming its status as a national force whose leader says it is on the verge of taking power.
“The Alternative for Germany is no longer an Eastern phenomenon – it is a mainstream party across Germany,” said co-chair Alice Weidel. “The electorate has clearly shifted from left to right.”
Elections in the central German state of Hesse and the southern state of Bavaria were both won by mainstream conservative parties. However, the AfD also performed strongly, winning 14.6% in Bavaria and 18.4% in Hesse, its best results in the western states.
Centrist politicians expressed frustration. Germany’s domestic intelligence service has identified some members of the AfD as extremists and one of its leaders is set to stand trial for using banned Nazi slogans. Last year, a former AfD lawmaker was arrested on suspicion of involvement in a militant plot to overthrow the country’s government.
However, none of this seems to have deterred voters, who are abandoning traditional parties in droves in favor of the AfD.
Sunday’s election results may be a victory for the Alternative for Germany, but not for the three parties in Germany’s ruling coalition – Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats. was catastrophic, with all three parties seeing their votes shrink.
Voters seem to be punishing them for everything from high inflation, a recession and soaring energy costs to a surge in irregular migration that is weighing on towns and villages across the country.
“Immigration is a complex issue and people are choosing the simple answers offered by right-wing populists,” said Saskia Esken, co-leader of the Social Democratic Party. “But these are only superficial answers.”
Immigration clearly plays a role: 80% of voters in Hesse and Bavaria said in exit polls that they wanted a “fundamentally different asylum and refugee policy – so that fewer people come to us”.
However, this problem only explains the rise of the AfD.
Manfred Güllner of pollster Forsa said frustration with Scholz’s government predates the refugee surge and has more to do with climate policy, particularly a law to phase out gas boilers and replace them with heat pumps.
“The majority of German citizens were and still are against the decision to close the country’s nuclear power plants, against an increase in guaranteed basic income, against a ban on gas heating systems and against a ban on internal combustion engines in cars,” he said. These are policies that the Alternative for Germany opposes.
The party has also benefited from ongoing bickering between the Social Democrats, Greens and FDP, which has hampered many cabinet matters.
“The success of the Alternative for Germany has a lot to do with the chaos and conflict in the federal government,” said Boris Rhein, leader of the winning center-right Christian Democratic Union party in Hesse.
Greens and liberals in Hesse and Bavaria acknowledge that dissatisfaction with Scholz’s coalition has cast a long shadow. “No party in the government has received support (from Berlin),” said Tarik Wazir, leader of the Greens in Hesse. “We have had a real hard fight.”
But the underlying cause of Sunday’s election result is a significant shift in AfD voters that could have major consequences for opposition politics in the years to come. Supporters of the Alternative for Germany have long been seen as typical protest voters who want to express their dissatisfaction to those in power in Berlin. This is changing.
Exit polls on Sunday showed that 38% of voters chose the AfD out of conviction rather than protest. In Bavaria the proportion is even higher – 47%. Voters from all other parties have defected to the Alternative for Germany, proving “that we have established a foothold among all segments of the electorate,” Wedel said.
The party’s top candidate in Hesse, Robert Lambrou, cited figures showing that 15% of first-time voters chose the Alternative for Germany. “You can see from the numbers that something is changing in West Germany,” he said.
Rambrough said the AfD policies proposed in Hesse – limiting “mass immigration”, reducing property transfer taxes, some kind of stamp duty and reintroducing nuclear energy – “reflect the will of the majority”.
Despite its new success, the Alternative for Germany remains a fringe movement. All other parties have built a “firewall” around it, insisting they will never cooperate or ally with it – either at the federal or regional level.
Wedel said Sunday’s results highlighted the absurdity of the firewall, a policy she said meant “millions of voters were excluded” from the political process. “This disdain and disdain for the AfD and its exclusion from government is untenable in the long term,” she said. “Firewalls are deeply undemocratic.”
Wedel’s allies predict that the firewall won’t last long – especially in the eastern states, where the AfD polls at more than 30 percent, other parties may struggle to form a viable coalition without it.
“In the next one to two years we will see an alliance (with the AfD) at the regional level – whether in Hesse or some other state,” Lambrew said. “We’re ready for more.”
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