The world is finally realizing that climate change is not a slow rise in temperatures, but a chain of destructive events that are not only occurring more frequently, but also causing more extreme impacts. Many areas are experiencing entirely new weather types. The world is clearly a different place—and not in a good way.
Decades of living in denial have left us unprepared for these conditions and facing the even harder task of adapting to the new climate and decarbonizing. If we had started in the 1970s when it was first clear that climate change was a scientific reality, our work would have consisted primarily of climate change mitigation.
With the catastrophe of 2023 likely to break records not just for the hottest summer, but also for the hottest year on record, it’s hard to imagine people casually dismissing well-substantiated warnings. But that’s exactly what happened.
Looking back 50 years, predicting the growth rate of greenhouse gas concentrations is challenging because we cannot predict future economic activity better than economists and Wall Street analysts. After correcting the emissions projections, we can see that the correlation between global average temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations warned by climate scientists is roughly correct.
Climate models are reasonably accurate in predicting how average global temperatures will respond to changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, but also methane, nitrous oxide and other naturally occurring and human-generated gases.
Yet despite the scientific rigor and breadth, these dire conclusions have been challenged, delaying or abandoning opportunities to contain and adapt to climate change.
I have some experience here: I was the convening lead author of the scientific community’s report on climate change, which, along with Al Gore’s report, won the 2007 Nobel Prize. an inconvenient truth.Scientists have been warning about rising temperatures, and humans have responded — as Al Gore wrote in an inconvenient truth— Like a frog in a pot of rapidly heating water, motionless as the temperature rises to boiling. It turns out that the proverb is a myth: the frog is smart enough to jump out of a pot of hot water. I’m not sure what this says about human nature.
This delay, while maddening, provides us with has important new information Chart a path to safety. Damage from climate change, mostly caused by extreme events, is growing much faster than expected. In other words, the cost of adaptation will be higher than we think. At the same time, while sophisticated models have in the past predicted high costs for switching to new energy sources (i.e. reducing emissions), the cost of new clean energy sources is falling faster than predicted.
In short, damage costs are rising rapidly, while green energy costs are falling rapidly.
We still have time─just barely. Faced with the dual challenges of decarbonization and adaptation, global warming of 1.5 to 3 degrees above industrial era standards will test our ingenuity and technological creativity.
Decades ago, one of our signaling failures was to accept the false choice of pitting climate change mitigation against economic growth. We must reset the terms of the debate:
At Entelligent (the climate data company I co-founded that hopes we can bend the curve), we analyze physical risks (the damage caused when the climate warms) and transition risks (the costs and benefits of public companies reducing their dependence). about fossil fuels).We can clearly see the trend In our statistical analysis: A world that invests in a productive climate transition will be richer.
The idea that climate action leads to a richer world is worth emphasizing. We cannot force global action, but three key ideas must be at the top of our agenda:
- We must publicly acknowledge and accept that the damage from climate extremes is more costly than expected and more difficult to adapt to than the costs of mitigating climate change.
- Countries must deliver on the sustainability and climate-friendly provisions of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which will lead to a richer world than one without climate change mitigation.
- Clean technologies must be widely supported. The cost of renewable energy is falling rapidly. Significant progress has also been made in smart grid infrastructure that reduces carbon emissions, and in carbon capture technology, slowly but surely.
Despite the grim reality, there is an opportunity to continue moving in the right direction.
Yes, the impact of climate change on regional weather systems reinforces our direct experience, if not universal understanding, of the consequences of climate change and its significant impacts on health, infrastructure, jobs, economies and daily lives.
We can achieve economic growth by limiting the costly, GDP-destroying impacts of worsening disasters and encouraging climate innovation that will create wealth around the world.
The extreme circumstances we are experiencing now seem to have society concerned. While it’s frustrating not to be heard, given the need to catch up, we must use this new energy to improve our responses and make more sustainable choices.
David Schimel, winner of the 2007 Nobel Prize with Al Gore, is chairman and co-founder of Climate Data Analytics they will understand. He is also a senior research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, where he leads research on carbon cycle-climate interactions.
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