Saudi Arabia and Israel have seems to have been asymptotically Reached a landmark deal to normalize diplomatic ties between the two countries — then Hamas attacked October 7, 2023,happened.
Thousands of people have died in Gaza and Israel since then.and Concerns about the spread of conflict The entire region formed the backdrop for frenzied diplomacy across the region, including US President Biden visits Israel October 18th.
It could also undermine a key pillar of Saudi Arabia’s foreign and domestic agenda: “Regional de-risking. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman embarked on the “Vision 2030”—an ambitious economic, social and cultural plan—and develop the Kingdom into a Tourism and investment destinationsThe last thing the crown prince needs is a renewed instability in the region.
Tensions ease
Of course, escalating violence in the Middle East has challenged the shift in tensions that have eased in the wider region in recent years.
This includes signing Abraham Accords In 2020, Israel established diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.But it goes further and includes multinational treaty have Gulf region rifts healedthe agreement was finally signed in March 2023 Restore relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran relation.
These diplomatic breakthroughs have opened up space for expanded regional cooperation through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative. India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor It will be announced at the G20 meeting in India in September 2023.
Officials in the region hope economic development will integrate the region and divert discussion from the lack of progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
Palestine question
Violence in Israel and Gaza could prevent Gulf states from supporting the Palestinian cause in the face of predominantly Muslim populations while also courting Israel and the United States.
Taking Qatar as an example, for a long time host Hamas political leaders remain Maintain friendly relations with the United States.It may now face major challenges from Israel and the United States pressure to evict Hamas leadership.
The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco all normalized relations with Israel in 2020.But public support for the Abraham Accords across the region Always lukewarm At best and now possible reduce leave.
Meanwhile, Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates Preparing for COP28The International Climate Change Conference will begin on November 30. The UAE does not want the meeting to be overshadowed or put at risk by a new regional war.
Reach out to Israel
But nowhere are the tightropes more fragile than in Saudi Arabia.This is due to the kingdom’s religious status in the Islamic world – it is the guardian of the faith’s two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina – and a series of ambitious economic reforms it has introduced As part of Vision 2030.
The movement for Palestinian statehood has long been a sensation in the Muslim world, and the current king of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, has been a prominent figure in the Muslim world. staunch supporter of palestine His whole life.
But his son and heir apparent, the Crown Prince, has increasingly shown a interest in conversation with Israel. This ultimately led to negotiations to “normalize” relations between the two countries – which would represent a historic breakthrough in Israel’s acceptance in the Arab and Islamic world. As recently as September 20th, Crown Prince Mohammed told Fox News said that “every day, we get closer” to reaching an agreement.
Indeed, in the days and weeks leading up to the Hamas attack, the U.S. media received a series of leaks Suggested outline An agreement is forming, Driven By the Biden administration.
public performance, private diplomacy
But Hamas attacks and Israel’s response undermined that momentum.Saudi Arabian sources informed the media on October 13 that normalization negotiations have begun pause –but not abandoned.
The message is consistent with Saudi Arabia’s efforts to balance domestic and foreign interests.one Initial statement from Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs On October 7, he called on “Palestinian factions” and “Israeli occupying forces” to ease tensions.But during the first Friday prayers at Mecca’s Grand Mosque after the attack, Saudi authorities preferred to take sides, with state-appointed clerics urge support as “our brothers in Palestine”.
Behind its public expressions of support for the Palestinians, there is evidence that Saudi Arabia is trying to spearhead diplomatic efforts to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas from developing into a wider war that could spread to Lebanon, Iran and other countries. War.
On October 12, Crown Prince Mohammed Discussed ongoing developments with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Israel and Gaza – their first talks since the two countries restored relations in March.
Three days later, the crown prince met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Riyadh. Media reports diverge Saudi Arabia and the United States’ stance on the conflict and the need for de-escalation.
Oil and foreign investment
These diplomatic measures are in line with the crown prince’s desire to “reduce” risks in the region. He is keen to see nothing jeopardizes a series of “Gigabit project” – such as Neom, a future new city located on the Red Sea coast – which has become synonymous with the 2030 vision.
Saudi Arabia is concerned that protracted or regional conflicts will hinder foreign investment in Vision 2030.
Foreign investment is seen as key to the project’s success. But after Saudi authorities detained him, foreign investment levels plummeted. Dozens of senior Saudi Arabian business people in 2017 at the Ritz-Carlton over corruption allegations. Investors worry that their business partners may suddenly disappear or be shaken.
As a result, Saudi Arabia itself has to bear most of the costs of Vision 2030.This explains why Saudi Arabian officials Have cooperated Join Russian counterparts at OPEC+ meeting to keep oil prices high enough produce Sufficient revenue to fund the project.
Vision 2030 is closely tied to Crown Prince Mohammed’s commitment to transform Saudi Arabia, a commitment he cannot afford to fail – hence his determination to reduce the sources of regional tensions, including with Iran.
Saudi officials also recently revised They plan to attract 100 million tourists a year by 2030 Up to 150 million and launched Bid to host the 2034 World Cup.
Behind these moves is Saudi Arabia’s desire to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from over-reliance on oil and turn the kingdom into a A destination for capital and talent Same. These ambitions would be threatened by another regional war in the Middle East – especially if it involves Iran.
Play the “standardization” card
So where does the “normalization” of Saudi-Israeli relations go?
Putting the process on hold for now is consistent with Crown Prince Mohammed’s careful balancing act. Going full steam ahead could face counterattacks from other Arab and Middle Eastern countries, undermining the process of de-risking the region.
It could also provide Saudi Arabia with greater leverage – a process that Israel and the United States hope the current violence will not completely derail.
So I think it makes tactical sense now, given Saudi Arabia’s strategy, to pause this process. Anger erupts across Islamic world Focusing on developments in Gaza provides Saudi Arabia’s leadership with an opportunity to take control of the next phase of what remains an extremely delicate effort.
Christian Coates Ulrichson is a Middle East fellow at the Baker Institute, Rice University.
This article is reproduced from dialogue Licensed under Creative Commons.read Source article.
Svlook
