How was Iran involved in Hamas’ attack on Israel?

Jacob Helberg has been a geopolitical risk forecaster for major U.S. companies for more than a decade, including working at Google from 2016 to 2020, fighting disinformation and foreign interference.He said wealth One thing is clear: “Hamas would never have been able to launch such a sophisticated campaign from land, air, sea and cyber in such a coordinated manner without the knowledge of Israeli or U.S. intelligence services if it had not been completely orchestrated.” The attack proceeds directly from Tehran.”

Helberg also leads the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a private group that advises Congress on trade with China, and serves as a senior policy adviser to the chief executive of defense contractor Palantir. He is not alone in this view. Aaron Pilkingtonan Air Force analyst specializing in Iran (not to be confused with republican congressman (same name), addressed to wealth and dialogue The current war in Gaza will serve Iran’s regional interests regardless of whether the country is involved in it.

And on Sunday, wall street journal report In fact, Iran is directly involved, citing sources citing Hamas and Hezbollah, two Iranian-backed Lebanese militias considered terrorist organizations by the United States. The report details meetings between the Iranian military and Hamas that began as early as August, at least two of which included Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdullahian.this Magazine Further reports suggest that Iranian security officials helped Hamas plan its raids.

By Wednesday, a separate report New York Times U.S. intelligence sources were quoted as saying that Iranian officials were caught off guard by the attacks. The sources added that an investigation into the Hamas attack was ongoing and could eventually reveal Iranian involvement.

Some say Iran’s involvement in the attack was also intended to prevent Israel from negotiating diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. Iran views Saudi Arabia as a rival and Israel as a sworn enemy, and any close relationship between the two could be seen as a threat. For now, any agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia appears to be on hold. Saudi Arabia is likely to wait to gauge public reaction to retaliation by Israel, whose foreign policy focuses on war rather than diplomatic treaties.

The U.S. and Israeli governments have not claimed Iran was directly involved in the weekend attacks. On Sunday, the day after the attack, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States had no evidence that Iran was involved. An IDF spokesman echoed the sentiment. “We cannot yet say whether (Iran) was involved in the planning or training of the attack,” explain Israeli Navy Rear Admiral Daniel Hajar.

However, both Israeli and U.S. officials have suggested that they suspect Iran because Decades of close ties The intelligence community believes this is the case between Iran and Hamas, Hezbollah and other proxies in the Arab world.Israeli President Isaac Herzog is called for”condemn Hamas and its allies and its backers in Iran,” but did not directly say the latter was involved in the weekend attacks, while a National Security Council spokesman said Iran “accomplice” during the attack.

Iran’s “specious denial”

Iran has long supported Hamas, although the specifics of their relationship are of course unknown to the public.Israel has previously claimed Hamas receives $100 million One year from Iran.In addition, the 2021 State Council Report Calls Iran “a major sponsor of terrorism” and claims it sponsors terrorism throughout the Middle East, including that of Hamas.

“The whole benefit for Iran of using Hamas as a proxy is to try to protect itself from bearing and absorbing the direct costs of an attack on Israel,” Helberg said. “They use Hamas as a buffer to conduct Seemingly reasonable deniability, such a response would be directed at Hamas rather than the Iranian state.”

One of America’s top political scientists isn’t buying the bill.Ian Bremmer, founder of geopolitical consulting firm Eurasia Group, said wealth Despite Iran’s alleged ties to Hamas, its recent actions do not demonstrate a desire to further destabilize the region. “Everything Iran is doing at the strategic level shows that they are not trying to start a war with Israel,” he said.

He cited several examples that showed Iran was unlikely to sponsor Hamas terrorist attacks. Recently, the country signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia, brokered by China, to restore full diplomatic relations between the two historical rivals. In 2015, Iran also agreed to slow down its uranium enrichment pace and allow UN inspectors to oversee its nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.However, this openness to engagement with the United Nations changed last month when Iran ban inspectors access certain parts of its nuclear program.The country also looks forward to receiving $6 billion Among previously frozen funds for humanitarian aid, this funding is unlikely to be compromised in connection with terrorist attacks in Israel.

On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explain Iran was not behind the attack. He called talk of Iranian involvement “nonsense.” Such comments are expected, Bremer said, adding that they “tell you nothing.”

A new “axis”?

However, Helberg had broader concerns that Iran might have orchestrated the attack. “Iran, Russia and China are actually in an alliance,” Helberg said. “The main organizing principle around the alliance is a combination of anti-Americanism and protest against the U.S.-led rules-based order.”

Several respected commentators have speculated that Hamas’s attack on Israel is a sign of the weakening of the so-called Pax Americana, the relativity that the United States instills in the world by discouraging other countries from waging war. Global peace. For example, long-time economics blogger Noah Smith wrote In his Substack, “This attack demonstrates the declining ability of the United States to contain conflicts around the world.” Bloomberg View Columnist Hal Brands also sees connections between Iran, Russia and China, which he calls “revisionist actor. “The ties between revisionist actors are stronger than at any time in decades,” Brand writes.

Helberg said he sees significant similarities between the military and foreign policy goals of the three countries. “Russia is waging a war in Ukraine,” he said. “Iran has effectively launched a campaign against Israel through Hamas. China is making every effort to prepare for potential actions against Taiwan.”

There are also clear connections between these countries. In the war against Ukraine, Russia relies heavily on Iran to provide military equipment such as drones and missiles. August, U.S. demands Iran stop Arms sales to Russia as part of bilateral efforts to reduce tensions.Russia, on the other hand lend to iranians Its engineering expertise could help update the manufacturing of its military drones as part of a wider information-sharing agreement between the two countries.Foreign policy experts worry that further international condemnation and isolation could push Russia and Iran have closer ties.

Russia and China have established close partnershipDecades in the making, it represents a partial containment of American dominance, if not outright opposition to the United States. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine complicated relations between the two countries. China has been cautious in condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine, although many countries around the world have done so. The two countries have maintained trade ties since the war, with China being a major buyer of discounted Russian goods that cannot be sold elsewhere because of multiple sanctions. When delegations from the two countries met in May, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin explain “The pressure from the collective illegal sanctions of the West” has brought relations between the two countries to an “unprecedented high level”.

Relations between China and Iran have also become increasingly close. In 2021, China signed a massive 25-year deal Signing a treaty with Iran This is a stepping stone to greater influence in the region. Bremer said China and Iran, in particular, have more of a transactional economic relationship than a full-blown alliance, noting their lack of a joint defense agreement. Bremer also pointed out that China has been slow to implement the Iran deal and that China has close relations with Saudi Arabia. In March, China and Saudi Arabia had very close relations. Grant dialogue partner status Join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

In March, China exerted some newfound geopolitical influence and brokered a historic agreement to fully restore diplomatic relations between the two rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, playing an unfamiliar but potentially popular global role. Peacemaker role. However, Bremer said China’s national interest lies in the trade opportunities these agreements represent.

“The Chinese are following their economic interests, which require them to import large amounts of oil from the Gulf,” Bremer said. “But this demand does not discriminate against historical rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.”

Bremer also doesn’t believe there is a clear relationship between Russia, China and Iran.

“I don’t quite understand what people are saying about an alliance between China and Iran,” he said, without specifically referring to Helberg. “To me, it refers to people who don’t know much about the region or China’s relationship in the region. To me, it’s Americans putting all the countries they don’t like or don’t trust in the same Simple abbreviation in a basket.”

Iran and Russia’s friendship is mainly because other countries shun them. “Not many countries like them,” Bremer concluded.

Over the past week, China and Russia have both issued low-key statements in support of Israel. China’s announcement was particularly disheartening to U.S. officials.Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-N.Y.) makes rare public criticism of senior administration official expressed his disappointment directly Addressing President Xi Jinping at a meeting in Beijing. Russia, which has already angered Israel due to its ongoing ties with Iran, said “worried” But there was basically no condemnation of Hamas. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a separate statement on Tuesday that the attacks were a result of U.S. “fail“In the Middle East.

The U.S. foreign policy establishment, also known asspotIn Washington, anxiety about Iran has a long history, dating back to at least the 1950s, when CIA backed coup Overthrew Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and replaced him with Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last king of Iran. Pahlavi’s reinstatement set the stage for the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which erupted forever after Iran’s relations with the United States were damaged.

Most recently, President George W. Bush declared Iran, North Korea, and Iraq in 2002 to be part of the “American-led international order.”axis of evil” — a declaration that heralds two decades of U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts of the Middle East that will end only in 2021 when President Joe Biden withdraws the last troops from Afghanistan. Now, just a few years later, the situation is once again front and center for the group.