Hamas, the Palestinian militant group based in Gaza, has launched deadly raids on Israel, killing 100,000 people, according to the latest count At least 1,200 Israelis, an estimated 150 hostages have been captured. The hostages, including children, soldiers and the elderly, were brought back to Gaza. Most were civilians captured from Gaza border towns. President Joe Biden revealed on October 10, 2023, some are americans. Hamas says every time Israel attacks homes in Gaza ‘no warning”, one of the hostages will be killed and the execution will be recorded and played to the public.
dialogue asked James Forest, international security expert at the University of Massachusetts Lowellto help readers understand the dynamics of this hostage crisis.
Hostage-taking looks like a planned part of a Hamas operation – why would Hamas do it?
Terrorist organizations have Historically, hostages have been taken to gain influence. Often influencing the decisions and actions of target governments when negotiating policy concessions, financial ransoms, or the release of imprisoned comrades.
In this case, Hamas says its goal is to force Israel to release imprisoned Palestinians.it is Threaten to kill hostages in retaliation for unannounced attack on Gaza This is another example of an attempt to intimidate Israeli leaders.
Hamas also has a vulnerability that many other terrorist groups do not have in that its own physical territory can be targeted.
The hostages are being held at unknown locations across the territory in an effort to deter Israel from launching military strikes that could inadvertently kill Israeli citizens. The hostage-taking may also be an attempt to boost the morale of Hamas supporters at home and abroad by demonstrating the group’s ability to intimidate and harm more powerful opponents.
Similar to a hostage-taking incident 1972 Munich Olympics Launched by the Palestinian group Black September, another possible goal is to draw international attention to the desperation of people living in the blockaded, impoverished Gaza Strip.
Attention, however, does not necessarily lead to sympathy. The kidnapping of innocent people, especially children and the elderly, is condemned around the world and it is difficult to gain sympathy even when the perpetrators of such crimes claim to be hostages. Free their lands from occupation. Furthermore, when citizens of other countries – Such as the United States – was one of the hostages, a decision Hamas may find counterproductive as it could invite retaliation from multiple countries.
Two other strategic considerations behind this behavior are provocation and destruction. Hamas is likely borrowing from the classic tactic of terrorists trying to provoke a target government into overly harsh responses. Hamas may want to provoke Israel to the point where it begins to lash out at Palestinians with escalating brutality.In turn, this would support so-called disruption strategies, by disrupting current Efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries.
What options do Israelis have to respond?
Democratic governments face many challenges in responding to terrorist groups taking their citizens hostage.Israel It shouldn’t be seen as underreacting, but it shouldn’t be seen as overreacting either..
Among the different counterterrorism strategies they could adopt, inhibition — including collective punishment, a method often used by Israel in the past — would seek to deter Hamas from launching further terror attacks and increase the level of suffering for Palestinians in Gaza until they rise up against Hamas. Examples of repression in response to terrorism include bans on free speech or public gatherings, arrests of political activists without probable cause, arbitrary searches and destruction of homes, and deportations.
A July 2020 United Nations Report pointed out: “While Israel’s rationale for imposing a blockade on Gaza is to contain Hamas and ensure Israel’s security, the actual impact of the blockade is to damage Gaza’s economy and cause immeasurable suffering to its two million residents.” The crackdown has so far not produced the results Israel seeks.
Another strategy, what scholars call “Behead,” involves capturing or killing the leaders of terrorist organizations.
This approach poses three important challenges, not the least of which is the location of the group’s leaders when they are sheltered in an area like Gaza with so many tunnels and among Hamas supporters.
Second, if Israel is able to capture Hamas leaders, neither side of the conflict may have much political will to negotiate a prisoner-hostage exchange, at least not if the daily killings fuel their desire for revenge.Third, if senior Hamas commanders are killed, there is always the possibility that they will be replaced The new leader is more cruel than his predecessor.
Finally, another option available to Israel is negotiation.Over the past few years, government leaders Arrange for the release of Israeli hostagesincluding soldiers in exchange for the release of imprisoned Palestinians.
Negotiations, however, rarely take place amid intense military confrontation. Instead, historical patterns suggest that any potential negotiations will wait until some time after the guns and rockets have subsided.
Hamas leaders believe their fundamental source is perceived legitimacy based on their ability and willingness to violently confront Israel. The fundamental challenge, therefore, is that there is no hope of negotiating lasting peace with an organization that does not believe that peaceful coexistence is in its best interests.
How would the hostages be treated in this situation? What do we know based on previous hostage-taking incidents?
It’s hard to know for sure. I think it would vary based on various contextual factors, such as who the hostages are and who is holding them hostage.
Hamas leaders likely gave orders to their forces not to harm the hostages and to move them to different locations to thwart an Israeli military strike.
However, Strictly comply with such orders This is not always the case between terrorist groups – especially in intense military confrontations. Still, most violent groups realize that if their hostages are killed, they will lose any bargaining leverage they hope to gain.
Is there an intermediary role? If so, who might they be?
Finding an intermediary that all parties trust will be very difficult because trust is hard to gain in this region. Whether it is an influential country such as the United States or an international organization, it is possible for an intermediary to help arrange the return of hostages only after the shootings, rocket attacks and air strikes subside.
What impact will taking these hostages have on the war process between the two sides?
The Israeli military must have been told to try to avoid actions that might harm the hostages. Throughout this conflict, Aid from the United States and other intelligence agencies may help Israel find targets to attack and hostages to rescue. Some hostages may be found and reunited with their families.
Hamas may use the hostage situation to generate sustained media attention. The group’s leaders may have thought that bomb-destroyed buildings might generate some photos and headlines for a few days, but posting photos and videos of Israelis being held captive online every week would gain Hamas more focus on. Ultimately, both sides must proceed with caution.
James Forest is Professor and Director of Security Studies in the School of Criminology and Justice Studies, UMass Lowell.
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