Unlock Editorial Digest for Free
FT editor Roula Khalaf chooses her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
(The author is director of the Palestine Studies Forum at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and senior analyst at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichmann University)
Hamas launched a relentless attack on Israel over the weekend in its worst ground incursion into the country since 1948. Therefore, Israel’s response cannot proceed like any other standard military operation or rounds of fighting over the past decade. Israel must pause and think before acting. The cost of capturing Gaza is too high. Instead, Israel needs to prepare for a long-term campaign to marginalize and oust Hamas.
The attack was carefully planned over a long period of time and has so far killed more than 800 people in Israel and resulted in the deaths of more than 100 Israeli hostages. As Hamas plots this deadly offensive, Israel is providing civilian and economic measures aimed at improving life in Gaza, arguing that these actions will help deter aggression.
Still, the attack wasn’t entirely surprising. Since the end of Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014, senior members of the militant group have repeatedly hinted that they intend to launch the next operation, which they say will take place inside Israel – a shift from previous rounds of fighting. Dynamic.
But while Israel considers Hamas an enemy, it believes the group has no motive for widespread escalation and that a costly barrier built around the Gaza border would deter any violence. Israel was therefore twice surprised: first by Hamas’ intentions, which were contrary to their assessment, and second by their unforeseen capabilities, especially the ability to cross the fence without using tunnels.
Israel now needs to find a way to restore its deterrence capabilities and perceptions of its preparedness. The attack is likely to undermine the country’s military credibility, not only among domestic and regional allies, but also among rivals such as Iran and Hezbollah, and the international community at large.
This is not just another iteration of the conflict that can be resolved through the familiar dance of mediators shuttling between Israel and Gaza, trying to piece together an agreement or understanding that includes a return to normalcy.
Instead, Israel’s attack on Hamas must be widespread and sustained. It is imperative to dismantle the organization’s security and governance mechanisms. But it is important that Israel also demonstrates a disciplined stance towards the Gazan public – refraining from indiscriminate targeting while providing aid to the humanitarian needs of more than 2 million Palestinians.
At the same time, it is critical that Israel conduct a thorough and candid strategic analysis before taking further action. While the prospect of conquest or long-term occupation of the Gaza Strip is feasible, it would come at a huge strategic cost, including loss of life, significant economic resources, and potential damage to Israel’s international standing.
Furthermore, the lack of viable alternatives to Hamas’s power structure poses a major challenge. The Palestinian Authority is too weak and the power vacuum may be filled by gangs. This may turn the Gaza Strip into Somalia or Afghanistan on Israel’s doorstep, further jeopardizing security.
Instead, Hamas must be weakened and pay a heavy price for any future acts of aggression. This must continue until internal protests undermine Hamas’ rule, although the likelihood of such a development remains unclear. Until then, Israel must adopt a pragmatic stance while preparing for a protracted conflict with a group driven by ideological fervor and determined to destroy the Jewish state.
Svlook
