Economist and professor Diana Mondino joined the party led by Argentina’s far-right liberal economist Javier Milei more than four months ago. But if Milley wins this month’s election, as most polls predict, she could become the country’s foreign minister by December.
Mondino’s trajectory is typical of the team surrounding Milley, a congressman and former television commentator who has promised an aggressive plan to dollarize the economy and cut state spending.
The ministers he selected came mainly from the private sector and academia, with few having government experience. Mondino, who is also running for a congressional seat, insists it’s an asset.
“Politics has brought us here,” she said in an interview, referring to Argentina’s worst economic crisis in two decades, which has pushed inflation to 138% and which many economists blame The ruling left-leaning Peronist movement is mismanaged.
“Why can’t those who are not part of a regular political party start something new?”
“Lack of experience can mean it’s difficult to deal with government bureaucracy,” she added. “Or it could mean that, since I don’t think the government should do everything, especially those things that can be provided by the private sector, I won’t fall prey to those who say ‘it’s always been done this way.'”
Many Argentine voters appear willing to give Milley’s Free Avanza party a chance. Since his surprise victory in the national primary in August, Milley has maintained a narrow lead over his main rivals for the presidency, Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa and center-right opposition Juntos por el Cambio. Patricia Burridge.
After the October 22 vote, if, as pollsters expect, no candidate wins more than 45% of the vote, or 40% of the vote 10 points ahead of his nearest rival, a presidential runoff will be held in November.
On the legislators’ side, even a strong showing for Milley’s party (which was founded in 2021 and currently has only three MPs) would gain around 40 seats in Argentina’s 257-seat lower house, with only half of those up for grabs. in these elections.
If elected, Milley would also become the first president in Argentina’s 23 provinces without a governor from a political party.
The lack of political structure, combined with the inexperience of his team, cast doubts on his ability to govern and execute his radical plans.
“Millay’s political position is extremely unstable,” said Juan Negri, a political science professor at the Universidad Torcuato di Tela in Buenos Aires. “The most likely scenario is that the government is paralyzed and unable to deliver on its promises.”
Milai’s rebel movement has displeased Peronists and Cambio revolutionaries, drawing comparisons to Donald Trump in the United States and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. All three share a tendency to use provocative language, be ideologically opposed to China and go on a crusade against political elites they say are out of touch with reality.
But while Trump owns the Republican Party and Bolsonaro is a longtime lawmaker backed by Brazil’s military, Milley may be more of an outsider. “The scene I see more of is Pedro Castillo in Peru,” Negri said, referring to the far-left leader’s impeachment last year after he tried to shut down Congress and rule by decree.
The risk of government gridlock goes some way to explaining why markets are uneasy about Milley’s rise despite promises to pursue some orthodox economic policies, such as quickly balancing the budget.
The peso, which has been plummeting against the dollar on the parallel trading market since April, accelerated after Milley’s surprise victory in the primary. On the black market, Argentina’s currency lost 38% of its value in two months. While bond prices remain well above where they were at the beginning of the year, they have fallen slightly since the primaries.
“The problem for markets is not having a pro-market government, but having a clear plan, the ability to execute the plan, and expectations for future policy continuity,” said chief economist Juan Pazos. express. Economist at TPGC Valores, a financial services firm based in Buenos Aires. “Consensus seems skeptical that Milei has any of this.”
While the centerpiece of Mire’s platform is a ferocious campaign against “casta” – the Spanish term he uses to refer to Argentina’s political class and the business and union leaders who forge alliances with them – Mire’s team will work to build the coalition he needs to govern if elected, said Juan Cruz Díaz, managing director of political consultancy Cefeidas.
He quoted incoming Interior Secretary Guillermo Franco as saying: “Besides the shouting they might have made during the campaign, there are people in his team, including him, who have the ability to work on achieving Political Agreement.” Until September, he served as Argentina’s representative to the Inter-American Development Bank.
“That way they can govern and maybe pass some reforms.”
Milei has begun to tone down his behavior. anti-caste attitude. Last month he held an event with hospitality union leader Luis Barrionuevo, while he has also forged formal alliances with traditional parties in several provinces. He has publicly praised certain JxC figures, including former President Mauricio Macri and former central bank governor Federico Sturzenegger.
Some members of the JxC have privately suggested that Macri might be willing to work with Milei if Bullrich loses.
Diaz said Milley’s ability to push his agenda will depend on the size of his potential victory. If he wins in the first round, or lands a landslide victory of 60% or more in the second round, the political system could get behind him.
He added: “If he ends up being elected president by a narrow margin and he doesn’t have a clear mandate for his agenda, that’s a different story entirely.”
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