Jeremy Hunt’s bet on a cheaper reformed state won’t cut taxes soon

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Good morning from Manchester.Jeremy Hunt posted Yesterday’s short speech There is a fierce debate over how the Conservatives are best placed to reverse the trajectory of rising tax burdens in the UK. Here are some thoughts on this and where the party disagrees on taxes and spending.

national savings

The chancellor’s argument is that innovation and reform in public services and the economy can allow the government to end tax increases while delivering better public services.

He is clearly right on one point: one factor driving up government spending is that the UK, like every other country in the OECD, has more people living past 90 and more dying from accidents or difficult childbirth And lifelong illness. They require expensive care, along with a host of other upward pressures on the health care system. Precisely because our current healthcare system was not designed around these needs, if it were reconfigured it could run better and cheaper and then you could enjoy what machine learning can bring to public services All benefits plus the potential for cost reduction. (Health Secretary Neil O’Brien promoted some interesting examples of use at IFS and Nuffield Health fringe events, including Grail’s Gallery Testwhich can screen cancer early in our blood, and the Automata robot, which can Automated Cancer Genomic Testing Process – Georgina.)

On the other hand, it can be seen from the three major public service reforms implemented by this government. The first was the education reforms overseen by Michael Gove, which benefited from high levels of spending despite cuts elsewhere. They essentially took place during David Cameron’s first term (although with the benefit of building on what New Labor had already done). They still exist and neither the Conservatives nor Labor intend to abolish them.

The second one is the policing reforms overseen by Theresa May, which is basically done in a single parliament. Like Gove’s reforms, these were completed and dusted by the end of Cameron’s first term. At the same time, police budgets were slashed. Since 2019, many of these reforms have been canceled or reversed.

Thirdly, the introduction of Universal Credit, overseen by Iain Duncan Smith, Steven Crabb, Damian Green, David Gauke, Esther McVey, Amber Rudd, Thérèse Coffey, Chloe Smith and Mel Stride, has not yet been fully implemented.

The difficulty with reforming public services without simultaneously spending more money is that it takes longer and/or is more difficult to win and maintain political support. It allows you to lower taxes in a similar way to ending the 60% hidden tax rate (via the “tapering trap”) or withdrawing child benefit for high earners. There is no doubt that these things do affect incentives and lead people to choose to earn less than they would otherwise. It’s just that you can’t use these things to make your tax deductions accrue in the here and now.

But Mr Hunt’s plan may provide a useful counterpoint to Labour’s. The question is which side has the better plan to avoid raising taxes, only to see public services stagnate.

Dividing line

During the party conference season, the BBC political live broadcast The plan will wisely not invite Labor politicians to speak during Tory conferences or vice versa, preferring instead to bring together backbench and frontbench views to get a full picture of what the party as a whole is thinking.

I really enjoy these shows and sometimes I’m lucky enough to be asked to attend, like I was Yesterday’s special program commemorated Jeremy Hunt’s speech. But I often find myself being pulled to the left or right as a result. During the Labor Party conference I started thinking “Well, someone better point out that the Conservatives don’t really want privatization and eating babies”, and during the Conservative Party conference I thought “Look, you know, someone should say that Labor members don’t Not everyone wants to spend money like a drunk in a casino.”

I think it’s a measure of the deep divisions within the Conservative Party that I thought a lot on yesterday’s show “Well, someone should make the argument that not everything the government does is a terrible stopgap measure that the country desperately needs to get rid of” .

Even MPs loyal to Rishi Sunak see the period between 2019 and 2023 as a long-term mistake, partly because Sunak desperately needs to make his leadership look like a break with the past. After 13 years in government, the strongest argument for you is that it’s time for a change. Sunak is trying to emulate what John Major did in 1992 and Boris Johnson in 2019 – show that he has changed enough from before to Keep the Conservatives in power.

But another aspect is that the Conservative Party is deeply divided on economic policy. One of the manifestations was the packed house at the Liz Truss conference rally – Lucy Fisher and Anna Gross gave an excellent report from inside the conference – But another example can be found in every debate about taxes and spending. At the moment, all the loud complaints are about the need for tax cuts, but the reality is that if Jeremy Hunt were to deliver them, he would immediately be faced with complaints about the spending cuts that would come with them.

Now try this

This week, I’ve been listening to Lauren Mayberry’s first solo single, “Are You Awake,” while writing my column.

Today’s headlines

• Food price inflation eases | Industry data showed that UK retail inflation fell to the lowest in a year in September as food price growth slowed sharply to single digits.

• “Cancel the future” | Downing Street insists “no decision has been made yet” on HS2, but senior Conservatives say Rishi Sunak has decided to build only the southern section between London and Birmingham to save billions of pounds. Andy Street, the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, accused Sunak of “cancelling the future” and undermining investor confidence in the UK by suspending the northern section of the high-speed rail line. Sunak is likely to confirm the decision in his speech to the Conservative Party conference tomorrow.

• doctor salary | Senior NHS doctors have offered to postpone further strike action if ministers agree to hold pay talks mediated by mediation body Acas.

• message in a bottle Rishi Sunak has Failed to hand over his WhatsApp messages The Guardian’s Pippa Crerar reveals that the coronavirus inquiry has been ongoing since he became chancellor, despite a High Court ruling that ministers should disclose their communications for scrutiny.