Jeremy Hunt’s risky ‘carrot and stick’ policies could help revive Tory fortunes

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Good morning from Manchester. What are the lessons from the Conservatives’ success in avoiding the failed Uxbridge by-election?

One explanation is strictly literal: it suggests that the Conservatives have a narrow path to victory at the next election by abandoning any environmental policies that impose costs on individuals and by vocally advocating for the needs of car users. This is the political logic behind the government’s “Motorist Plan”.

Another reading – and the one I like – is that it suggests the country has not yet screened the Conservatives. If there had been a by-election in the circumstances of 1996, Labor would have won because voters stopped listening to the Conservatives and they really, really, really liked Tony Blair.

By 2023, things are different: the Conservatives are seen as exhausted, divided, incompetent and less moderate than Labour, and they think Keir Starmer is worth hiring. But they have not resisted Conservative attempts to persuade them to change their minds. That’s one reason why Jeremy Hunt’s speech today, which previewed many of the big political arguments he will try to make in his autumn statement, could help the Conservatives win an unprecedented fifth term. Here are some thoughts on this.

workers and slackers

Jeremy Hunt will support raising the national living wage to at least £11 an hour and pledges to introduce a raft of tough sanctions to reduce the number of people claiming unemployment benefits In today’s speech – George Parker and Lucy Fisher said inner track.

If any of this sounds familiar to you, that’s because it’s very similar to the position laid out by George Osborne in the Budget, a policy mix that was very effective at putting Labor at a disadvantage – until it quickly blew up in the government’s face. After the 2015 Budget was announced. Osborne’s attempts to cut tax credits and balance them with a more generous minimum wage crashed his budget and seriously damaged David Cameron’s approval ratings. Given Cameron’s importance to the Remain campaign and the proximity of the referendum, it is also likely that this will lead to Brexit and the end of the Cameron-Osborne era.

So, what has changed? Well, if I were a member of the Labor Party, I would be delighted that British public opinion has moved to the left on a range of issues, not least welfare. For the Conservatives, the politics of cutting benefits and talking about “evaders rather than strivers” is not as simple or painless as it once was. That’s why I expect the tone of the Prime Minister’s speech today will be very different. Still, while tone can get you far politically, policy matters too.

But if I were a member of the Conservative Party, I would be heartened that Labor now faces a different problem: avoiding being seen as the party of further tax hikes and spending. Labor will try to argue that it will address economic inactivity through growth and repairing the nation’s health, while trying to avoid committing to undoing welfare budget cuts, a difficult balance to strike. The debate over welfare and welfare reform will be difficult for both sides.

Now try this

My thanks to the various Inside Politics readers who suggested I try the Armenian Bistro and Restaurant. Georgina and I dined there with George Parker, Anna Gross, Peter Forster (Premium subscribers: remember you can receive his post-Brexit newsletter in your inbox every week) Register here) last night. It was such a great meal and I highly recommend it.

Of course, it’s impossible to eat in an Armenian restaurant without thinking of my good friend and former colleague Anoosh Chakelian, who wrote an article moving parts The New Statesman’s coverage of Azerbaijan’s bombing of Nagorno-Karabakh is worth your time, and the Financial Times’s Polina Ivanova has a look at what happened there This smart, unforgettable on-the-ground report on the geopolitical consequences is also worth your time.

Today’s headlines

• “loser” | The Conservative Party conference got off to an acrimonious start: the Conservative Party’s favorite mayor announced that he would not bet on the party to win the general election, while future leadership contenders were accused of jockeying for the position. Party chairman Greg Hands admitted the Conservatives were likely to run as “losers” at the election and admitted they had a “difficult conversation” with voters.

• Flood | Water companies in England and Wales are proposing huge increases in household bills to pay for a record £96 billion investment in water and sewerage networks.

• Carrying a heavy burden | The construction industry, hit by a slump in the property market and the potential scaling back of major public projects such as the HS2 rail line, is bearing the brunt of a broader slowdown in the labor market.

• Play it the British way | Spotify boss Daniel Ek has urged the government to use its freedoms outside the EU to set new rules to reduce the dominance of big tech companies. “The UK can now act with flexibility and show leadership,” Ek said, claiming Spotify was unfairly hampered by digital platforms such as Apple.

• The call is over | Education Secretary Gillian Keegan will speak at today’s meeting to announce that schools will be told to ban students from using mobile phones Telephone throughout the school dayAccording to the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves and Harriet Lane.