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Forget the polls. I found an easier way to predict elections. If a party suddenly has an influx of good-looking people and enthusiastic young people in suits who want to be elected to parliamentary seats, it will win. This has happened to Blair’s New Labor in 1995, Cameron’s Conservatives in 2007 and Starmer’s Labor in 2023, having won a landslide victory a few years ago.
The contrast between the Labor conference in Liverpool and the Conservative conference in Manchester could not be greater. The Conservatives are a chaotic rabble with squabbling factions, while Labor are so professional and so disciplined that I think even the man who sells socialist workers has a message. The audience cheered when Rachel Reeves told them they were not allowed to spend money. He applauded Sir Keir Starmer when he supported Israel; and made “Red Flag” sound more like a hymn than a protest song.
Labor looks like the winner. They also look very capable. Their secret weapon is a group of middle-aged women wearing practical shoes who really know their stuff. If Starmer becomes a director, his cabinet will include experienced Yvette Cooper, who served under Gordon Brown; and Liz Kendall, who has worked on social care issues Above, who challenged the government to adulthood; the able lawyer Shabana Mahmoud; and Thangam Debbonaire, who would become the first professional cellist to serve as culture minister. Labour’s star figure Reeves is a shadow chancellor, and Mark Carney’s support for her is an oddly partisan move for the former Bank of England governor, but it demonstrates his deep, unwavering seriousness about her sexual admiration.
Finally relieved. The whirlwind of Conservative governments in recent years has sent a group of unprepared MPs into a broadcast studio, staring dumbfounded into the camera and trying to remember which department they had just been shuffled into. Starmer appears to have chosen a shadow cabinet whose work bears some resemblance to their expertise.
Of course, opposition is a luxury. Labor has only recently become reasonable, but still hasn’t been asked many of the tough questions. Can political parties really change their positions so quickly? Everyone is on the same page on the road to power. Once in office, Starmer’s challenge will be to face the inevitable need for cash and win business confidence to deliver on his ambitious growth targets.
His vision became clearer this week. An overhaul of planning laws to kick-start a massive house-building program – with the hope being that the forms will look more “Georgian” than Lego. Vigorously promote green technology. Wes Streeting’s determination to push for reforms to the NHS may overcome a cash shortage he can’t spend on pills, unlike in the Blair years.
The key message from Reeves and Starmer is the need for partnerships between business and government. Private sector investment is needed in diagnostics and digital systems in the NHS; in upgrading energy grids; in life sciences and manufacturing. Every shadow minister I have met this week has reiterated that a Labor government must provide the stability and certainty that businesses need. Of course, they were right—although some looked so dazed that I began to wonder if Reeves had implanted a chip in their brains.
Not everyone agrees. Unite general secretary Sharon Graham received a standing ovation in Liverpool for calling for the renationalization of electricity and gas. The motion was passed by a show of hands but will not appear in the manifesto. But Graham leads a powerful union. Reeves vs. Graham will be a battle between two powerful women.
Graham also questioned Starmer’s commitment to working people. This is surprising given that his party has promised to deliver a host of significant new employment rights within its first 100 days. Anyone who thinks this is just an abolition of zero-hours contracts should take a closer look.
this New Deal for the Working PeopleThe committee, led by deputy leader Angela Rayner, appeared to contradict the party’s stated desire to attract business. It includes changes to the Equality Act, procurement rules, sick pay, strike law and the rights of workers who have been made redundant or who have unfair dismissal claims. It would introduce stronger collective bargaining, a higher minimum wage and the ridiculous “right to secede”.
Personally, some of these policies make sense. Collectively, they create a burden on the business. And the timing is weird. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the tight labor market has transferred some power from capital to labor. Post-Brexit, the UK’s flexible labor market is one of our remaining attractions.
Has this debate actually been discussed within the Labor Party? It’s not clear yet. Renner and Levi appear to be in different positions.
Starmer has done a fantastic job of getting his party re-elected and his influence is widespread. Realizing that a landslide victory could turn unnoticed no-hopers into MPs, his office is excluding far-left candidates from parliamentary shortlists. He also proved to be a lucky general: Labour’s victory in the Scottish by-election came at just the right time to boost morale.
Britain is in trouble. The government is limping along, trying valiantly to do the sensible thing but looking increasingly overstretched. Meanwhile, the opposition appears to be on its honeymoon even before taking power.
The word “momentum” is a bit dirty because it has been co-opted by Corbyns. But make no mistake: Labor has done it.
Camila.cavendish@ft.com
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