As Israel continues its aerial bombardment of concentrated forces on the border in Gaza and the coastal enclave, the goal of the Israeli operation has become clear: to destroy Hamas.
It’s unclear how the Israeli military plans to do this. By ordering nearly half of Gaza’s 2.3 million people to leave their homes and flee south or face death, it has raised concerns that any coming ground invasion would first seek to capture northern Gaza.
Or, it could be a feint.
Regardless of the order of battle, any ground invasion would involve the overwhelming force of the Middle East’s most powerful military to eliminate an entrenched enemy that killed 1,300 Israelis in a complex cross-border attack on Saturday, Israeli officials said people.
The death toll on the Israeli side and the atrocities committed by invading Hamas commandos have shocked the country, with Israeli officials comparing it to the horrors of the Holocaust.
Israeli retaliatory airstrikes have killed at least 1,800 Palestinians – half of them women and under the age of 18, according to local health authorities – and are just the beginning of a long campaign.
“Now, there is a certain softening of air and artillery strikes,” said Eitan Shamir, who helps develop Israel’s national security doctrine at the Ministry of Strategic Affairs.
Late on Friday, the Israeli military said it had sent small infantry raids into the area to search for hostages and collect evidence.
Shamir said that if Israeli forces then launched a full-scale ground invasion, which is looking increasingly likely, the first 24 hours would be “very fast and strong, with forces coming in from many directions.” “Your options are limited, but they’re going to try to do it in unexpected ways with a very rapid, overwhelming force.”
The invasion is now expected to come from the north and could capture Gaza City, the 40-kilometer-long enclave’s largest population center and the heart of Hamas’s political and military infrastructure.
“It looks like the (Israeli war cabinet) has decided: to invade to the north with force and rolling fire, possibly four divisions as well as naval and special forces, to quickly enter Gaza and capture Gaza City,” Ehud Yari said. Israel Senior analyst and fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists, bringing its military strength to more than 500,000. U.S. weapons are arriving by air almost daily to replenish its Iron Dome air defense system with interceptors and increase ammunition inventories. Reservists are receiving refresher training and receiving weapons. Armor is being repositioned.
“What you see is a reserve army – on Friday, there are bank clerks, mechanics, not professional soldiers, so it will take some time to get them ready immediately,” said Shamir, who currently works at the BESA center in Bar-Ilan Talk about college.
Amos Yadlin, a retired general and former head of Israel’s military intelligence agency, said the goal was so “ambitious” that it held back Israel’s previous government precisely because the cost of Israeli deaths could be high.
“The goal of this operation is to destroy Hamas, take away all its military capabilities and governance capabilities and (replace) it with something else,” he said.
How Hamas fighters react will affect Israel’s military strategy. Shamir said many would likely flee as civilians fled south, but that would play to Israel’s advantage. It could establish forward bases, move equipment closer to the front lines and destroy Hamas’ underground infrastructure.
“The fighters will disappear, but you have to clear the tunnels, clear everything, and leave nothing behind that they might use,” he said. “This is just the first phase, then they will go south and clean it up.”
Hamas’s vast system of tunnels – built to house and protect the group’s fighters and commanders – poses a difficult challenge, but Israeli forces will try to destroy it without having to enter.
“The underground network could also become a death trap for them, where Israel would burn them,” Yari said.
Whatever the precise contours of the Israeli offensive, analysts are convinced it is coming — likely within days.
The United Nations and other international agencies are trying to persuade Israel to extend a 24-hour deadline to leave northern Gaza to give civilians more time to prepare. The Palestinian Center for Human Rights estimates that hundreds of thousands of people are still on the move even with little fuel, roads destroyed and people in deep panic.
Basel al-Sourani, an international advocacy officer at an EU-funded human rights group, said he now recognizes the feelings of other Palestinians in 1948, when they moved from Haifa and Negev during the formation of the Jewish state. Husband and other areas were displaced. “Just like in 1948, are we going to see the same thing in 2023?” he said.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on Friday that this round of violence between Israel and Hamas would be unlike any in the past. When all this is done, Gaza “will be a different story.”
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