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Benjamin Netanyahu’s hopes of a landmark deal to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia were bolstered late last month when an Israeli minister was allowed to make his first official visit to the Gulf kingdom. A symbolic push.
But as complex multilateral negotiations between U.S., Saudi Arabia, Israeli and Palestinian officials accelerate, the Israeli prime minister must walk a tightrope to ensure domestic support for a deal that has the potential to reorder the geopolitical order in the Middle East.
Normalizing relations with a country seen as one of the leaders of the Sunni Muslim world could encourage other countries to follow suit, appealing across the Israeli political spectrum. But Netanyahu’s allies and opponents alike have expressed reservations about aspects of the impending deal and have drawn battle lines in recent weeks.
For Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, in which ultranationalists play a key role, the trickiest part of any deal will be concessions to the Palestinians – which both U.S. and Saudi officials say will be Israel’s The price of normalizing relations with Riyadh.
Palestinian officials have made clear to their Saudi and U.S. counterparts their wishes, including a freeze on Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank – which the Palestinians seek as the centerpiece of a future state – and a freeze on the territory’s More control of some lands, along with financial support, according to people familiar with the negotiations. But it is unclear what concessions the United States and Saudi Arabia will seek.
Some hardliners in Netanyahu’s coalition may accept increased economic support for the Palestinians. But two far-right parties led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gweil and Finance Minister Bezaleh Smotrich – both of whom seek to annex the West Bank and reject any steps toward Palestinian statehood — have made clear they will not accept political or territorial concessions.
Ben-Gweil, whose relationship with Netanyahu is already strained, said last month that his Jewish Power party would withdraw from the coalition if a deal involved concessions to the Palestinians, a threat that would strip him of power if carried out. Netanyahu’s majority.
Simcha Rothman, a member of the Smotrich Religious Zionist Party, told the Financial Times: “I don’t think there is any dispute that a real deal cannot be reached by making concessions to the Palestinians. . ”
Some of Netanyahu’s Likud party, which holds half of the coalition, have similar reservations. “I think for many people within Likud, any kind of territorial concessions would be a red line,” one party source said. “The second (red line) is something that can be seen as symbolic in some cases, (for example) Palestine officially becoming a member of the United Nations.”
If Netanyahu cannot muster enough support for a deal within his own coalition, he will either have to abandon the deal or gamble on the support of the opposition – most likely led by Yair Lapid Supported by one or both of the centrist Yesh Atid party and the opposition parties. Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party – pushed the bill through parliament.
Both Lapid and Gantz have ruled out joining Netanyahu’s existing coalition or replacing their parties if Bengvir or Smotrich leave in protest of the deal. But both countries have expressed broad support for normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia and left open the possibility of supporting a deal outside the government, as long as it does not violate their own red lines.
As part of the talks, Riyadh is seeking U.S. support for a civilian nuclear program. Lapid insisted he would not support an outcome that would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its soil. But U.S. and Israeli officials have been discussing steps the U.S. could take to retain some control over the enrichment process, and opposition officials say resolving the issue could clear the way for their support.
“The only thing standing in the way of an agreement right now is the issue of uranium enrichment,” said an opposition official. “If this element is not included in the final deal, the majority of the opposition will enthusiastically support a deal.”
But others are skeptical that cooperation between the government and the opposition is feasible, as long-standing tensions in Israel’s polarized politics are further exacerbated by bitter disputes over government control of judicial powers.
“I think it’s unrealistic at this stage,” a Likud insider said. “For the past six months, the government and the opposition have been trying to reach a compromise on judicial reform. But even so, they have been unable to reach an agreement. The mutual distrust and suspicion are too serious.”
Some analysts have also questioned Netanyahu’s willingness to sacrifice his own coalition and rely on opposition support to push for a deal – especially since Likud’s slumping support and his feud with former allies mean he The chances of forming another government are slim.
But others believe that if he strikes a favorable deal with Saudi Arabia, he could use the momentum to force a snap election — which would be the sixth since 2019 — and try to push it through a new , a more pliant parliament.
“If a majority of Israelis agree and we get a peace deal with the largest country in the Middle East by land mass . . . and it appears to be warmer than the peace we have with Egypt and Jordan, Netanyahu will have the best chance of moving ahead. election. He will have the best cards,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser turned political analyst.
“Netanyahu’s strategy is very flexible. So if it comes to a binary decision, peace or no peace, I think he will do it at all costs.”
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