Unlock Editorial Digest for Free
FT editor Roula Khalaf chooses her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
New Zealand goes to the polls on Saturday, with the ruling Labor Party facing the prospect of being defeated by a right-wing coalition after the resignation of charismatic former leader Dame Jacinda Ardern.
As economic and social rifts deepen in the Pacific nation, the latest poll suggests Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, who will succeed Ardern this year, may be replaced by National leader Christopher Luxon. ) led by the center-right coalition was ousted. Business executive.
According to the latest 1News Verian poll, National and the right-wing ACT Party will win 58 of the 120 seats in parliament, while Labor’s coalition with left-wing partners the Greens and Aboriginal party Te Pāti Māori will win 54 seats.
Pro-US populist Winston Peters, 78, is expected to hold the balance of power, with his New Zealand First party taking the remaining eight seats. Peters, whose party failed to win a single seat in the 2020 polls, has served as foreign minister and deputy prime minister in Ardern’s coalition and is anti-immigration.
Labour’s defeat would mark a significant shift from the 2020 election, when the party won a landslide victory under Ardern, with public support for her socially progressive platform and tough pandemic border controls.
The former prime minister raised New Zealand’s international profile during his five years in power but became increasingly politically isolated at home before abruptly resigning in January.
Former diplomat and trade negotiator Charles Finney said while New Zealand’s foreign policy had historically been largely bipartisan, there were now “huge differences” including China’s growing influence in the region, the Five Eyes A war broke out over the weekend over intelligence networks and Israel’s Hamas.
“If National-ACT-New Zealand First is elected on Saturday, major capitals will breathe a sigh of relief,” he said, adding that a National-led government “will support Israel more strongly”.
Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta, the first Maori woman to hold a foreign affairs post, was criticized this week for failing to quickly condemn an attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Resulting in more than 1,000 deaths.
Since taking office in late 2020, Mahuta has spoken out against China’s increasingly aggressive behavior toward Hong Kong and Taiwan, but she has also pursued a more independent foreign policy, balking at U.S.-led efforts to strengthen the Five Eyes network, which also includes the U.S. and Britain , Canada and Australia confront Beijing.
However, there is also uncertainty over how the National-led government will deal with China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Luxon, a former Unilever executive, is a close ally of former Prime Minister Sir John Key, who maintains a personal friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
At home, Saturday’s polls exposed widening social fissures amid anger over successive governments’ failure to address a broken housing market, worsening inequality and a rise in gang-related violence.
“It’s natural to seek change in difficult times, but change has consequences,” Hipkins urged voters on the campaign trail, warning that under Luxon New Zealand would “go backwards on climate change.” .
While both National and Labor have pledged to take a tougher stance on crime, neither party has a platform for major economic policy changes or meaningful housing market reforms despite the cost of living crisis and high inflation.
If the election fails to provide either leading party with a clear mandate, as polls suggest, the kingmaking role could shift to Peters, who first entered parliament in 1978 and ran with Labor in 2017 and 2005 and formed government with the National Party in 1996. The process of forming a government is likely to involve closed-door negotiations and could take weeks.
Additional reporting by Nic Fildes in Sydney
Svlook
