Plenty of time for Keir Starmer’s sheen to fade

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(The author is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London)

There will be no general election in the UK tomorrow, no matter how political pollsters urge voters to express how they will vote. But if anything, even the most optimistic Conservatives have to admit that Labor will win, and win easily. In fact, it is unlikely that the competition will be held for another year.

By then, this year’s conference season, which saw the opposition’s best finish, will be a distant memory.In fact, one study compared parties’ “pre- and post-meeting” ratings over nearly 70 years suggestion Any backlash Liverpool might have given Labour will be dashed faster than that.

None of this means Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer shouldn’t be quick on his feet. In terms of how people vote, and as far as we know what constitutes “fundamentals”, they seem to point to a victory for Labour – or at least a defeat for the Conservatives. Starmer will go to great lengths to ensure that he ends up not only in charge of the largest party but also in charge of a government with a sizeable majority – however, this is not guaranteed.

For Labour, slow economic growth and a cost-of-living crisis mean – if they ever go away – that livelihood issues will return. From this point on, things look bad for the government.

That’s not to say Labor has a landslide lead Pollsters ask voters Which side do they think is best equipped to deal with key issues. On the economy, for example, the numbers are always in the single digits, largely due to the fact that while only about a quarter of respondents support Labour, even fewer support the Conservatives (usually around one fifth).

However, helping Labor is that around three-quarters of voters think the government has handled the issue poorly. The NHS and even immigration show similar results.

It’s also personal. Starmer may have an approval rating of -12, but Sunak has an approval rating of -40.In addition, the vast majority of people voters believe The government is exhausted and at the mercy of events.Although two-thirds think the Conservative Party is divided, Less than a third said the same about Labour.

However, the differences in values between UK graduate and non-graduate voters, which led to the 2016 Brexit referendum and Boris Johnson’s comfortable victory in 2019, have not disappeared. Indeed, new research presented at the conference by Manchester University professor Rob Ford shows that values differences remain important and pose an equally big challenge to both Labor and the Conservatives.

Voters who left school at 16 are more likely to think immigration is a problem and less likely to agree with Labour’s priorities in tackling climate change. They are also more likely to be wary of any moves by Starmer to improve Britain’s relationship with the EU. Labor therefore needs to proceed with caution, particularly as these high school graduates make up a large proportion of voters in small town constituencies where Labor needs to wrest a majority from the Conservatives.

To do this, Labor will need a bigger swing than the one achieved when Tony Blair won Labor in 1997. The party’s relatively poor performance in local elections is therefore also worrying.In contrast to this, Labour’s recent progress in scotland Evidence of anti-Tory tactical voting south of the border is mounting.

However, the fact that support for independence remains high at 46 per cent suggests that, despite its big wins in this month’s Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-elections, Labor would be better off limiting its ambitions to Won only 20-25 Scottish seats. House of Commons.

So while it is now difficult to see how the Conservatives can exclude Starmer from Downing Street entirely, getting into Downing Street with a comfortable (or even just workable) majority remains a work in progress.

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