Until recently, officials in Brussels had hoped that opposition leader Donald Tusk would return to power in Poland next month – an electoral victory that could rebuild trust in Poland’s relationship with the EU and put a damper on growing illiberal sentiment in Poland. Islamism and a wave of Ukrainian skepticism. group.
But as the October 15 vote approaches, EU diplomats are beginning to realize that the opposite outcome is much more likely, with serious consequences for the entire bloc.
“A lot depends on what happens in Warsaw,” said a senior EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order not to interfere in another country’s political process. “And the signs right now are not good.”
Poland’s ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has been at odds with Brussels for much of its eight years in power, has waged a vicious campaign to maintain its lead – even at the expense of support for Ukraine. Instigated by its potential junior partner, the far-right Federal Party, the government banned Ukrainian food imports, announced the end of benefits for refugees fleeing the war, and raised the possibility of halting arms shipments to Ukraine.
In addition to the domestic implications of the bloc’s fifth-largest member state’s shift in attitude, the prospect of a coalition between Law and Justice and the far-right is unsettling to EU officials because it risks entrenching an illiberal bloc of countries that further hampers decision-making in the EU. within the group.
Officials and diplomats told the Financial Times they were preparing for another five years of Law and Justice, which would deepen divisions between major capitals such as Warsaw and Brussels and Paris and Berlin, making it harder for the EU to negotiate reach consensus on important issues.
Brussels aims to reach an agreement by the end of the year on an increase in the EU’s common budget, a new agreement on rules governing member states’ budgets, a decision to start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and the formal implementation of the new system. for processing asylum seekers and migrants arriving in the EU. All of this could be blocked or complicated by Poland and Hungary, as well as Slovakia.
Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is seeking a political comeback in Sunday’s election, and his Ukraine-skeptical, Russia-friendly stance could put him firmly in line with Viktor Orban’s illiberal in the camp. Officials worry that Eastern allies will be emboldened to block EU decision-making in areas that require unanimity.
Poland’s ruling party has been willing to make Ukraine-related concessions to the far right, a senior official in another member state said, a “rather dangerous” harbinger of what it might say about the EU in the future.
Daniel Hegedus, a senior researcher at the German Marshall Fund, said that although the Polish election may still produce various results, most of them are not good for the EU.
“Either way, this will have a very important impact,” he said. “We are in the hands of Polish and Slovak voters.”
“The core of illiberal authoritarian governments in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe is likely to continue to grow. Obviously, this will make the coordination of EU foreign policy actions more difficult,” Hegedus added. “I think people who are very optimistic about the Polish elections forget that there is an entrenched authoritarian deep state in Poland.”
Brussels had pinned its hopes on Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who served as president of the European Council for five years, representing EU governments. He returned to Poland to lead the country’s center-right opposition, oust the Law and Justice party from power and reshape Warsaw’s relationship with the European Union.
Officials speculate that this would further isolate Orban at the top of the EU and defy expectations of a coming right-wing wave in European elections next May. But his coalition remains solidly behind Law and Justice in the polls and will need to ally with at least two other smaller centrist and left-wing groups to secure a parliamentary majority.
“Poles have developed a tendency to fight everyone at once,” one EU official said. “And it seems increasingly likely that the next government will only expand this approach.”
Brussels has frozen EU funds over Polish judicial reforms that allegedly violate its rule of law principles. PiS denies this and claims Brussels’ actions have gone too far.
Neither the Law and Justice Party nor the Federal Party advocates Poland’s withdrawal from the EU, but rather radical changes from within. “We strive to change the direction in which the European Union is heading,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice party, said this month. “We are waiting for the next European elections, next year, we are waiting for changes and they will come.”
Poland and Hungary have drifted apart in recent years due to Orban’s continued close ties with the Kremlin. But over the past year, they have worked together to severely delay progress on issues such as immigration reform and the taxation of multinational corporations.
Adding to Brussels’ anxiety is a calendar quirk that means Hungary will hold the EU Council Presidency from July to December next year, followed by Poland from January to June 2025. The Presidency chairs all Council meetings and has the power to advance — or demote — topics on the legislative agenda.
“Russia remains the main point of division between right-wing forces in Europe,” Hegedus said. “Nonetheless, the bottom line for strategic cooperation between Poland and Hungary remains in response to EU sanctions and intervention (by Brussels against them) mutual defense agreement.”
“They are already coordinating this to blackmail the EU,” he added. “The cooperation perspective across the EU has always remained the same.”
Additional reporting by Raphael Minder in Warsaw
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