Poll-driven politics does nobody any favours

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In his 1985 book Amuse yourself to deathAmerican cultural theorist Neil Postman believes that “the medium is metaphor” – that is, the main way people consume information affects social culture.

He contrasts an era when people got their information from the printing press—a time when big conversations were detailed and logical—to the age of television, where complexity was avoided and nuance was dispensable, making America The national discourse is “withered and absurd”. ”.

One is beginning to feel that the era of poll-based authority is having a similar impact on politics.

In the last month alone, the United States and the United Kingdom have conducted more than 100 large-scale representative surveys on politics and current affairs, with political parties, media and advocacy groups conducting surveys on various issues.

In the UK, Rishi Sunak’s government appears to be trying to boost public support through opinion polls. Each week a new front-page story heralds a survey showing whether voters love or hate a particular policy, meaning the Conservatives will eat into Labour’s lead if they take a hard line on the issue. But after many weeks and many issues – immigration, the Clean Air Plan, net zero emissions – the Conservative vote share has not changed.

This may sound surprising, but it’s not. One-dimensional survey questions are not a good way to measure public opinion, which is almost always multi-dimensional.

To cite a recent example, the Conservatives have identified cutting inheritance tax as a sure-fire vote winner. A poll earlier this summer suggested they were right. Only 23% British inheritance tax Fair, 43% thought it was unfair, the largest net negative rating among the 13 taxes surveyed. But later in the same survey, only one in seven said they would prioritize spending cuts.In an in-depth survey conducted by the cross-party think tank Demos in June this year, 55% said people should always be able to inherited duty free. But when asked what the threshold for taxation should be, only 22% said inheritances should always be tax-free.

The chart shows that when asked a simple agree/disagree question, the majority of Britons believe people should always be able to pass on inheritance tax-free, but when asked to set their own thresholds, three-quarters support the decision Some estates taxed, with most setting thresholds lower than current levels

Polls on immigration ask similar questions. A survey of Britons and Americans conducted for the Financial Times by research firm Focaldata showed that 56% of US adults said immigration levels were too high, and 60% of Britons felt the same way. Then, clearly support the policy of reducing the number of people. But when we asked people what they thought about the number of immigrants from 12 different categories (depending on work or reason for immigration), in each case only a minority said the numbers should be reduced.

Only a handful of Britons and Americans say their countries should bring in fewer medical staff, scientists or engineers from overseas. Even when asked about people coming to the country to avoid conflict, less than a third said numbers should be reduced. The strongest objection is that people come here “seeking a better life”, but even here only a few want fewer numbers.

Chart shows most Britons and Americans say overall immigration levels are too high, but when asked about specific immigrant groups only a minority want them reduced

To be clear, the latter reaction does not invalidate the former. The public is under no obligation to hold unanimous policy views. But the emerging pipeline from simple yes/no polls to front-page stories to policy changes does neither the public nor politicians any good.

It’s not that people are dishonest in answering questions for or against, but that a simple question fails to capture the nuances of public opinion on complex issues. Using a single number on these topics will inevitably be misleading and produce overconfident predictions about the impact of policy changes.

Perhaps most importantly, political science has shown that, for decades, What do voters care about most? It’s about capabilities on key issues facing the country, not differences in positions on secondary issues.

If a political party wants to improve its standing among the public, let alone improve the country’s material conditions, its best strategy is to solve problems rather than obsess over polls.

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch