The White House could inadvertently repeat history by limiting the amount of U.S. exports of advanced semiconductors to China—and if not careful, could repeat the escalating events that led to Pearl Harbor. That’s the warning from legendary investor Ray Dalio, who has long advocated a positive relationship between China and the United States.
Dalio, who founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975, told an audience at the Greenwich Economic Forum that the United States finds itself in a “very similar situation” with China as it was with Japan during World War II.
In 1940, as tensions between the two countries increased, the United States ceased exports to Japan, froze Japanese assets in American banks, and ceased any negotiations with Japanese diplomats.
Japan, facing severe material shortages and seemingly unable to negotiate with the United States, launched the attack on Pearl Harbor a year later in December.
Dalio worries about measures recently announced The U.S. Commerce Department will restrict exports of artificial intelligence chips and chipmaking tools to China as early as October, which could escalate tensions like similar moves in the 1940s.
“The reason for World War II was the war with Japan, where you cut off the oil supply and then sanctioned them and took away their payments,” Dalio said in a conversation with Japan. Bloomberg TV’s David Westin. “So your situation is somewhat similar. Potato chips were like oil back then, and it’s a very, very delicate issue.”
Dalio added that the chip embargo – which U.S. officials say is an effort to stabilize relations between the two countries – is one of a number of factors adding fuel to the fire.
“On the edge of the red line”
The self-proclaimed pro-China faction said that the two world powers are gradually reaching the point of no return on many issues.
“These irreconcilable differences are at the edge,” Dalio said.
Dario – his books “Principles: Life and Work” The translated version became a bestseller in China after its publication – citing the “Taiwan issue” as being at the forefront of tensions.
Taiwan has been governed independently from China since the 1940s, but officials in Beijing still consider the island part of its territory.
As far as the United States is concerned, it has long pursued a “one-China” policy, which means diplomatically recognizing China’s position that there is only one Chinese government.
The U.S. State Department said in a statement last year’s statement: “We oppose any party unilaterally changing the status quo; we do not support Taiwan independence; we hope that cross-strait differences can be resolved through peaceful means.”
Therefore, Dalio explained that any deviation from this long-standing agreement could be devastating: “The breaking point is if the United States says, ‘We support Taiwan’s independence.'” That would be equivalent to a declaration of war.
“Because of the political issues we have right now, internally you might be pushing for this – because a lot of people in Congress and so on are going to say ‘we’re going to defend Taiwan.'”
no one wants war
Thankfully for people around the world, Dalio also firmly believes that neither the United States nor China wants to be involved in the conflict.
According to reports, “neither country wants to start a war” $16.50. Billions continue. “Everyone is worried about what that war will look like because it will be economically and politically devastating.”
High-profile figures like Janet Yellen are also doing their part to try to solidify U.S.-China relations.
after the trip Beijing this summerThe US Treasury Secretary acknowledged that no single visit would “solve our challenges overnight”.
However, she added that decoupling from China would be “disastrous for both countries and destabilizing for the world” and that any continued separation would be “almost impossible”.
Svlook
