The escalating events in Israel this weekend will have ripple effects on its foreign policy and even the entire Middle East. The Israeli government has previously been negotiating with Saudi Arabia to normalize diplomatic relations. The deal would be a historic achievement for the region’s two main powers, both U.S. allies, after decades of estrangement bordering on hostility.
However, Ian Bremer, president and founder of the geopolitical consultancy Eurasia Group, said the agreement was “now a non-starter” following recent terrorist attacks by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent declaration of war.
Bremer called these attacks “Israel’s 9/11” because they were sudden and targeted civilians. It was also “the first attack deep into Israel,” he said. Bremer wrote in an analyst note on Monday that Israel and Saudi Arabia will be forced to reconsider due to an unprecedented national security crisis that “will leave the Palestinians more diplomatically isolated than ever before.”
Since the war began, there has been no official word from Israel or Saudi Arabia on the progress of the negotiations, which the United States is helping to mediate.
Saudi Arabia issued a statement on Saturday calling for an end to further escalation and blaming Israeli policies as Hamas militants entered Israel, killing civilians and taking others hostage. “The Kingdom has repeatedly warned that continued occupation could lead to an outbreak of the situation,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said. release on X (formerly Twitter).
The statement offered little support for Israel and drew criticism from U.S. foreign policy officials. Senator Lindsey Graham reportedly spoke to a senior Saudi official and told him “this is not a normal statement to make if you want to have a normal relationship with the United States.” New York Times report. Graham also reportedly warned Saudi Arabia of participating in the “cheerful part” of Hamas and Iran’s Lebanese proxy group Hezbollah, which both the United States and Saudi Arabia support. designated terrorist organization.
Bernard Haeckel, a professor of Middle East studies at Princeton University and the world’s leading expert on Saudi Arabia, said the statement may have a different target audience. “The Saudi statement is intended to save face in the Arab and Islamic world, where the Palestinian cause remains important,” he told reporters wealth.
During the Trump administration, the United States helped mediate Abraham Accords, Israel established diplomatic relations with the Gulf states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Israel later signed agreements with Muslim countries Morocco and Sudan.Despite the announcement, which was announced with great fanfare, including among Arab states previously hostile to Israel, Arab citizens across the Middle East less enthusiastic Through transactions. Nearly a year after the signing of the Abraham Accords, Washington post Calling them an “afterthought” in the region’s geopolitics.
Bremer said the latest escalation would make it difficult for Israel and Saudi Arabia to reach an agreement. “The Saudi foreign ministry condemned the attacks, but also said Israel was responsible for them because of its historic treatment of Palestinians (a statement echoed by many governments in the region), which makes two states impossible. Engage in diplomacy,” Bremer said in the same note.
So far, Saudi Arabia is waiting to see how the war between Hamas and Israel unfolds before resuming negotiations. New York Times the report said. Saudi Arabia may be waiting to see if a large number of Palestinian civilians die, which could turn public sentiment in the Arab world toward Israel.
“If Israeli retaliation results in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians, it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to justify peace with Israel,” Haeckel said.
Efforts to block the deal may have been a driving factor in Saturday’s surprise attack. “It’s too early to tell, but part of the reason Hamas/Iran is launching these attacks is to hinder the normalization process,” Haeckel said. Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been geopolitical rivals in the Middle East . Saudi Arabia’s decision to normalize relations with Israel may make Iran particularly uneasy about its role in the region.this wall street journal The report quoted senior Hamas and Hezbollah sources as saying that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps approved the attack. Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the United States has “Not seen yet” information Intelligence confirmed Iranian involvement.
Saudi Arabia is also negotiating a deal Defense Treaty with the United StatesThis could also be threatened, Bremer added, adding further uncertainty to the kingdom’s foreign policy. He said the war in Gaza “makes it more difficult for the United States to support recent improvements in relations with Saudi Arabia, including the civilian nuclear deal and alliance upgrades, which in this environment will be strongly condemned by Congress.”
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