The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may approve all 12 pending spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications within the next eight days.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote that starting on November 9, the SEC had a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including Grayscale’s switch in the days before November 17 of its GBTC trust product, but stressed that this was only a possibility.
New research notes I wrote today.We still believe there is a 90% chance of getting spot before January 10th #bitcoin ETF Approved.But if it comes sooner, we’ll be entering a window where there *might* be a wave of approval orders for all current applicants pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyff (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
“The SEC simultaneously issued delay orders to BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity and Valkyrie,” Seyffart wrote in a Nov. 8 post on X (formerly Twitter).
“If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to start — as we believe it does — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was confirmed.”
The reason for this short window is that when the SEC extended the deadline for some pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications, it chose November 8 as the last day of the comment period.
From November 17, the comment period for three applications, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF, will reopen, which means that they will not be approved or rejected until after November 23 at the earliest.
While the window to accept all 12 applications will end on November 17, Seyffart added that technically, the SEC could make a decision on nine of the 12 applications at any time before January 10.
While there is no guarantee that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved, Seyffart and Balchunas estimate there is a 90% chance of approval by January 10 next year.
Grayscale is in talks with SEC on GBTC conversion
While market experts eagerly await the SEC’s decision, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly begun discussions with the regulator about its application to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a Nov. 9 report. Report From CoinDesk.
Grayscale has been in contact with the SEC’s trading and markets division and corporate finance division since winning a court case with regulators on Aug. 29, people familiar with the matter said.
As the likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF being approved increases, so does optimism in the cryptocurrency market, with the price of Bitcoin rising by more than 30% in the past 3 months. Bitcoin’s sharp gains have also boosted price activity in other major assets.
related: Yat Siu: Spot Bitcoin ETF Hype Rekindles Enthusiasm for Blockchain Gaming
Over the past month, Solana (SOL) has seen a staggering 93% increase in scaling, while Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) have grown by 36% and 20% respectively.
While many in the industry believe the approval will kick off the next bull market, other analysts are not convinced the rally has staying power.
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