Bitcoin (BTC) is up more than 120% year-to-date, showing that cryptocurrency sentiment has improved significantly. Heavy buying has led to a sharp increase in the number of crypto wallets holding more than $1 million in Bitcoin this year, from 23,795 on January 1 to 81,925 currently, according to BitInfoCharts.
After a sharp rise, Bitcoin may face resistance in the short term as investors digest this week’s upcoming macroeconomic data and events. Consumer Price Index data will be released on November 14, followed by Producer Price Index data on November 15, while the November 17 deadline to avoid a partial U.S. government shutdown may cause short-term volatility.
Short-term retracements are healthy for the long-term trend of the market. This could also be seen as a buying opportunity by traders, as most analysts expect Bitcoin to rise in 2024 on expectations that a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund will finally receive regulatory approval.
Will Bitcoin and some altcoins begin a short-term pullback, or will bulls maintain buying pressure and clear their respective overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the chart to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced off its neckline on November 9, showing bulls buying on every minor dip.
The 20-day exponential moving average (4,319) has started to turn upward, and the relative strength index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, showing that bulls are in control. A breakout and close above the downtrend line would clear the way for a rebound to 4,512.
However, bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to protect the downtrend line violently and drag the price below the neckline. If they do, the index could fall to its 20-day moving average. Sellers will have to push prices below the 20-day EMA to stand out.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
On November 3, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke below a descending channel pattern, but bears were unable to take advantage and initiate a deeper correction.
The economy has begun to recover and has touched the 20-day moving average (105.92). If the price falls significantly from current levels, it means that market sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling at the 20-day moving average. This could drag the price down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 104.38.
On the other hand, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the index may rise towards the resistance line of the descending channel pattern.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin has held near the channel’s resistance line for the past four days, but bulls have failed to initiate the next phase of the uptrend. This suggests demand is drying up at higher levels.
If prices re-enter the channel, it would indicate that the November 9 breakout could be a bull trap. Short-term traders may take profits, pulling the price towards the 20-day EMA ($34,961).
Overbought levels on the RSI also warn of a possible correction or consolidation in the near future. If the bears pull BTC/USDT pai below the channel, the correction could extend to $32,400 and eventually $31,000.
On the contrary, if the price rises significantly and rises above $38,000, it will indicate that a rise towards $40,000 will begin.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) rebounded from the psychological level of $2,000 on November 12, indicating that bulls are trying to turn this level into support.
Buyers will once again try to overcome the $2,200 hurdle. If successful, the ETH/USDT pair could accelerate its rise and surge towards $3,000 as there is no significant resistance level between the two.
Meanwhile, bears may have other plans. They will likely put up a strong defense at $2,200. If the price pulls back from this level, the pair may consolidate between $2,000 and $2,200 for a few days. If the price breaks and sustains below $2,000, the short-term trend will turn negative. The pair may then drop towards the 20-day EMA ($1,908).
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been consolidating between $240 and $258 over the past few days. This has pulled the RSI down from overbought territory.
The rising 20-day EMA ($238) and the RSI in positive territory suggest buyers have the upper hand. If the price rebounds from the 20-day EMA, bulls will attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair towards $265. This level may once again witness a heated battle between bulls and bears, but if cleared, the pair could surge towards $285.
On the downside, bears would have to pull the price below $235 to signal the onset of a deeper connection to the 50-day moving average ($222).
Ripple Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) has been trading below $0.67 over the past few days, but a positive sign is that bulls did not allow the price to fall below the 20-day EMA ($0.62).
Tight consolidation around $0.67 strengthens prospects for a move above this level. If this happens, the XRP/USDT pair could jump to $0.74. This level may pose a challenge, but is likely to be overcome. This could start a rebound towards $0.85.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns downward and falls below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that the bulls have given up. This could push the pair towards the next important support level at $0.56.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) surged to the $48 resistance on November 10 and rose to the $59 level on November 11, but the bulls faced strong resistance from the bears.
The rally over the past few days has pushed the RSI above 88, indicating that the rally has been overdone and a correction or consolidation may be imminent. If prices decline from current levels, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $48. This level may attract buyers who will try to turn $48 into support.
Conversely, if the $48 level breaks down, it would indicate that traders are rushing to exit. The pair may then drop to the 20-day EMA ($43).
related: Due to tight BTC supply, Bitcoin institutional fund inflows will exceed $1 billion in 2023
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) broke above the $0.38 mark on November 10, but bulls failed to build on the recovery. This shows that the bears are fiercely defending the $0.38 level.
Sellers will try to pull the price towards the 20-day EMA ($0.34). If bulls want to continue to hold, they must hold on to the 20-day moving average. A strong rebound from this level will increase the likelihood of a rebound above $0.38. The pair is likely to rise first to $0.42 and then to $0.46.
Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it means that the ADA/USDT pair may remain in a large range between $0.24 and $0.38 for some time.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied above $0.08 on November 11, but bulls were unable to sustain higher levels, as seen by the long shadow on the candlestick that day.
Failing to hold above the overhead barrier, a pullback towards the 20-day EMA ($0.07) has begun. Buyers will try to defend this level and start a rebound. If they succeed in doing this, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.08. This is an important level to watch as a break above it could open the door for a rally towards $0.10.
Conversely, a breakout and close below the 20-day EMA would suggest that the pair is likely to remain range-bound between $0.06 and $0.08 for some time.
Chainlink Price Analysis
Chainlink (LINK)’s strong rally over the past few days has pushed the RSI above 86, indicating that the recent rally has been overdone.
This may entice short-term traders to take profits on November 12 near $16.60. The LINK/USDT pair is likely to pull back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $14.27 and then to the 50% retracement level at $13.55.
The real test will be the 20-day EMA ($13). A strong rebound from this level would indicate that buyers continue to view dips as a buying opportunity. This could push the price towards $16.60. If this level is exceeded, the pair could reach $18. This bullish view will be invalidated in the short term if the price slides and remains below the 20-day EMA.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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