The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 2.24% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly gain. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) edged up 0.8%, indicating consolidation below $38,000. The outlook for risk assets remains bullish as the U.S. dollar index begins to fall.
Even after Bitcoin surged 125% in 2023, cryptocurrency investors did not abandon their Bitcoin holdings, indicating their long-term bullish view. Reflexivity co-founder William Clemente posted a chart from Glassnode on X (formerly Twitter) that shows that 70% of Bitcoins in circulation have not been sold or transferred over the past year.
A report from digital asset platform Fineqia seen by Cointelegraph shows that investors also increased their investment in global cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2023. Fineqia reported that crypto ETP assets under its management surged 91% from January 1 to October 31, 2023.
If Bitcoin fails to break through resistance, will a deeper retracement begin? Will altcoins also head lower, or are they bucking the trend? Let’s analyze the chart to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
On November 14, the S&P 500 surged above its downtrend line, signaling the end of the correction phase.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is in overbought territory, indicating that bulls are in charge. There is slight resistance in the 4,512 to 4,541 area, which may lead to a pullback.
On the downside, the 20-day exponential moving average (4,395) is likely to act as strong support. If the price rebounds from this level, it means the trend has turned positive. This would enhance prospects for a rebound to 4,650 points.
Conversely, if the 20-day EMA fails, the index may fall to the 50-day simple moving average (4,340 points). Sellers will have to pull the price below this support to signal strength.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The US Dollar Index fell from the 20-day moving average (105) on November 14 and broke below the descending channel pattern.
It then began to pull back and has now reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 103.46. The 20-day moving average has started to turn downwards, and the RSI is close to the oversold zone, indicating that the bears are in control.
If the 103.46 level breaks down, the decline could extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 102.55. Buyers are likely to vigorously defend the area between 103.46 and 102.55. The first sign of strength will be a breakout and close above the 20-day moving average.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
After finding support at the 20-day EMA ($35,925), Bitcoin gradually advanced towards the important resistance level of $38,000. The bears have defended this level twice in the past; they will try to do the same thing again.
If the price falls sharply from the overhead resistance and falls below the 20-day moving average, it may trigger stop losses from some short-term traders. This could start a correction in the BTC/USDT pair, with prices potentially reaching $34,000 and then $32,400.
Conversely, if the bulls break above the $38,000 resistance, it will signal the beginning of the next phase of the uptrend. The pair is likely to move towards $40,000, which could once again act as a significant resistance level. Rising moving averages and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) has been forming a large ascending triangle pattern that will complete upon a breakout and close above $2,200. This bullish set target is $3,400.
Bulls are buying dips at the 20-day EMA ($1,949), suggesting lower levels continue to attract buyers. If the price remains above the psychological $2,000 level, the ETH/USDT pair may attempt to rebound towards $2,090 and then to $2,200.
On the contrary, if the price declines and falls below the 20-day EMA, it means that the bears are trying to stage a comeback in the short term. The pair may then drop towards the 50-day moving average ($1,779).
BNB price analysis
Over the past few days, bulls have managed to keep BNB (BNB) above its 20-day EMA ($242), showing that market sentiment remains positive and traders are buying dips.
The bulls will next attempt to push the price above $258 and retest the strong resistance at $265. A breakout and close above this level would complete the round bottom pattern. With no major resistance in the middle, the BNB/USDT pair could rise towards $305.
Alternatively, if the price declines and falls below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that the bulls are losing control. The pair is likely to drop towards immediate support at $235. This level is likely to serve as solid support, but if broken below, the correction could extend to the 50-day moving average ($227).
Ripple Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.62) on November 16, but the bears failed to pull the price to the next support level at $0.56. This indicates that the lower levels are attracting buyers.
The XRP/USDT pair is hovering between $0.74 and $0.56. If buyers push the price higher and hold it above the 20-day EMA, it would signal that an easing rebound has begun. The pair may then climb towards $0.67 and then $0.74. Price movements within this range are likely to remain random and volatile.
A break above $0.74 or a break below $0.56 could start a trend move. If the price sustains above $0.74, the pair may jump to $0.85. On the other hand, a break below $0.56 could lead the pair to drop to $0.46.
Solana Price Analysis
Buyers are struggling to keep Solana (SOL) above $59, which shows that bears are still active at higher levels.
One small positive in favor of the bulls is that they did not give up too much ground to the bears. This suggests that buyers are in no rush to sell their positions as they expect the uptrend to continue. On the upside, a breakout and close above $68.20 could clear the way for a rebound to $77.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the short term if the price declines and falls below the 20-day EMA ($51.39). Subsequently, the SOL/USDT pair may fall towards the key support level of $48.
related: ARK and 21Shares update spot Bitcoin ETF application as next SEC deadline approaches
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) has witnessed a fierce battle between bulls and bears over the past few days near $0.38.
The upward sloping moving averages and the RSI in overbought territory suggest that bulls are in the upper hand. If the price remains above the $0.38 to $0.40 resistance zone, the ADA/USDT pair is likely to rebound towards $0.46.
If bulls want to halt the rise, they will have to quickly pull the price back below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). If this happens, some short-term bulls could take profits and the pair could slide towards the 50-day moving average ($0.30).
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually moving higher over the past few days. On November 17, bulls pushed the price above $0.08 but failed to sustain the breakout.
The price dropped to $0.08 on November 18th. A positive sign is that bulls are working hard to defend the $0.08 level. If they succeed in doing this, it would indicate that $0.08 has moved into support. This will improve the prospects of resuming the uptrend. The DOGE/USDT currency pair may reach $0.10.
The RSI is showing signs of forming a bearish divergence, indicating that momentum may be slowing down. Sellers will have to pull the price lower and hold it below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) to seize control.
Chainlink Price Analysis
On November 17 and 18, sellers attempted to push Chainlink (LINK) below the 20-day EMA ($13.64), but the long tail on the candlestick indicated strong buying at lower levels.
There is a small resistance at $15.40, but if this level is exceeded, the LINK/USDT pair could retest the local high at $16.60. Sellers are expected to defend aggressively at this level again, but if bulls do not give up too much ground, the likelihood of a breakout above $16.60 will increase.
On the contrary, if the price declines from $15.40, it means that the bears are selling at higher levels. If the bears are able to sink lower and sustain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $12.83, the trend will turn in the bears’ favor.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
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