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Politicians and pundits love patterns. So we see a government in trouble after 13 years in power and debating whether the next election will be a repeat of 1992, 1997 or 2010. Our choices point us to possible outcomes. But there’s no real precedent for the election. Each has its own unique and ever-changing turn of events, which, in the words of Robert Harris’s Cicero, “squirms, turns, and runs in directions no one expects, sometimes just to prove that the smart-aleck is Incorrect”.
Rishi Sunak faces a party that predicts defeat at next year’s election – and with defeatism within your own ranks the surest way to that outcome, his first challenge is to give them a reason to Believe this campaign still offers some wiggle room.
Their pessimism is logical. But new polling data received by Keir Starmer’s team offers some comfort. Labor strategists were told that while 79 per cent of voters answered “yes” to the question “Does the country need change from the Conservatives?” the figure fell when people were asked whether the country needed change from Labour. to 37%. The gap is Sunak’s opportunity.
The prime minister’s strategists believe he must convince voters that he is the change they seek. The need for bold action is clear. Voters pigeonholed Sunak as the latest Tory leader and failed to heed his hopes of a quiet ability to win over them. The focus of conference week wasn’t on the decisions he made (many of which weren’t actually that tough) but on the need to attract attention.
The changes he proposed were billed as a break with broken and failed politics, which was certainly an indictment of his predecessor. Moreover, his commitment to a new style of politics was epic in brazenness, if not cliché. But the Conservatives have succeeded with such transformations before. Sunak believes he is showing his mettle by canceling a major rail project and slashing net-zero emissions targets, even though his conference slogan “Think long term for a brighter future” sounds like it came from a life insurance company Stolen.
Some of his announcements – such as banning teenage smoking and reshaping A-levels – were eye-catching and sensible, but given the impending election, most will remain that way. And there is nothing about major challenges such as housing or social care. Yet there is something deeply parochial about the core voting strategy. The lines were drawn on subjects such as motorists, trans rights, immigration, and the flow of money to towns rather than cities. Sunak may be addressing real concerns, but talk of a “war on motorists” makes him sound more like a minor opposition party member than the prime minister of a G7 country.
Winning disillusioned voters back into the Conservative fold is crucial, but core voting strategies are not enough. This may be a clue to what Sunak’s team really thinks is the core election issue. The county appears to have decided it no longer needs the Conservatives. What it has not yet concluded is that it wants an alternative. While all the focus is on the cost of living, the NHS or immigration, the key and unresolved issue will be how voters feel about Starmer.
Sunak’s framing of the debate is that he is a party of common sense, opposed to Labor ideologues peddling social and environmental policies that ordinary families cannot afford and cannot support. The Conservatives will exploit voters’ suspicion of Starmer and his many shifts in stance. Their line of attack – that the Labor leader will say whatever is necessary to win – has clear power.
Starmer’s personality and political instincts will be at the center of debate and brutally tested. Once the election comes, Conservative strategists will promote many television debates because they believe they can expose their opponents. After 13 years, the Conservatives cannot be the party of genuine change, so their real message is about Labour. It warns: Be careful what change you seek.
This idea still needs refinement. Sunak must decide whether Labor is dangerously left-wing or a dull status quo. Will this be enough to keep the Conservatives in power? Probably not. But this could limit the scale of defeat and lead to Labor forming a chaotic minority government.
That’s why next week’s Labor conference in Liverpool is the most crucial meeting of the season. It will provide the first real look at the third leg of Starmer’s strategy. Having eliminated the influence of the Corbynist party and turned against the Tories (with significant help from the government), he must now answer the question “Why Labour?” That means convincing voters that Labor shares their core values and aspirations for Britain. Part of his pitch is that his party offers voters respect and self-respect. But he also had to find a way to instill hope.
Sunak has found a song for his followers to sing, one that could at least win back some lost voters and perhaps trigger mistakes in his opponents. Whether Starmer can convince voters that his values are theirs is now the decisive variable in the coming battle.
Successful opposition does not wait for the transfer of power. They accepted it. If the Labor leader’s character is to become a central issue at the next election, Starmer must resolve the issue in his favor before the Conservatives can answer for him. Go to Liverpool.
robert.shrimsley@ft.com
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