Thousands of coal, oil and gas workers will be looking for new jobs as the U.S. shifts away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner energy sources.
Many will have the skills to enter new jobs in the emerging clean energy industry, but the transition may not be easy. looks simple.New research published in the journal Nature Communications Identify major barriers In discussing how to create a Just a transition For these workers: location.
us analyzed 14 years of fossil fuel employment and skills data finds that while many fossil fuel workers can transfer their skills to green jobshistorically they have not moved very far when changing jobs.
This shows that simply creating green industry jobs is not enough. The jobs have to be where the workers are, and most fossil fuel extraction workers are not in areas where green jobs are expected to grow.
Without careful planning and targeted policies, we estimate that only about 2% Fossil fuel workers involved in extraction may shift to green jobs this decade. Fortunately, there are ways to help make the transition smoother.
Many fossil fuel and green skills overlap
As of 2019, About 1.7 million people Worked in the U.S. fossil fuel industry, many of which were in areas from Texas and New Mexico to Montana, and from Kentucky to Pennsylvania. As the country shifts from fossil fuel use to clean energy to protect the climate, Many of these jobs will disappear.
Policymakers tend to focus on skills training when they talk about skills training The importance of a just transition For these workers and their communities.
To understand how the skills of fossil fuel workers transfer to green jobs, we use Occupational and skills data The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compared them. These profiles provide information on workplace skills required for more than 750 occupations, including drillers, underground mining machine operators and other mining occupations.
Overall, we found that many fossil fuel workers involved in extraction already possess similar skills needed for green careers, Previous research also found. In fact, their skills tend to be a better match for the green industry than for most other industries.
Work-to-work process data U.S. Census Bureau data shows these workers have historically tended to move to other sectors with similar skill requirements. Fossil fuel workers should therefore be able to fill emerging green jobs with minimal retraining.
However, the data also shows that these fossil fuel workers Usually does not travel very far Fill job opportunities.
location issue
when we draw a map Current position A study of wind, solar, hydro and geothermal power plants using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration found little overlap with fossil fuel workers.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ forecasts of green jobs May appear in 2029 There is also little overlap with where today’s fossil fuel workers work.
These results are consistent across several green jobs projections and different definitions of “fossil fuel” occupations. This is worrying for the prospects of a just transition.
How policymakers can intervene
Overall, our findings point to two potential strategies for policymakers.
First, policymakers can explore incentives and programs to help fossil fuel workers relocate. However, As our analysis Research shows that these populations have not historically shown geographic mobility.
Alternatively, policymakers could create incentives for green industry employers to build fossil fuel communities. It may not be that simple.Green energy production often depends on The wind blows the strongest, Solar power is the most efficient and Geothermal Electricity or hydropower available.
We simulated the creation of new green industry jobs in two different ways, one targeting fossil fuel communities and another evenly distributed across the United States based on population. These targeted efforts significantly contribute to the transition from fossil fuels to green jobs. For example, we found that creating 1 million jobs that were location-targeted produced more shifts than creating 5 million jobs that didn’t take workers’ location into account.
Another solution doesn’t involve green jobs at all. Similar analyzes in our study of other existing U.S. industries show that construction and manufacturing jobs are already concentrated in the same locations as fossil fuel workers and require only limited retraining. Supporting manufacturing expansion in these areas may be a simpler solution and may limit the number of new employers needed to support a just transition.
There are other questions What worries fossil fuel workers, such as whether the new jobs will bring the same pay and will last after construction ends. More research is needed to evaluate effective policy interventions, but overall, our research highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to achieving a just transition that takes into account the unique challenges faced by fossil fuel workers in different regions.
By addressing these obstacles, the United States can help ensure that the transition to a green economy is not only environmentally sustainable, but also socially just.
Morgan R. Frank is an assistant professor of informatics, University of Pittsburgh and Lin Zhengxian is an assistant professor of political science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
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