U.S. coronavirus infections are hovering around levels seen during the pandemic’s first peak in 2020 and approaching a delta peak in late 2021, according to modeling by wastewater monitors and forecasters.
It’s another sign that while the official pandemic status may be over, the days of COVID-19 are far from over.
Viral wastewater levels are within striking distance of all peaks of the 2020 pandemic, except for the initial peak in March 2020, which they have exceeded. They lag only slightly behind levels seen during the deadly Delta rush in late 2021, according to Biobot Analytics, which monitors such data for the federal government.
A forecast released this week by leading coronavirus modeler Jay Weiland reached the same conclusion. On Thursday, Weiland estimated that 650,000 Americans are being infected every day, with 1 in 51 Americans infected by the coronavirus.
Please note: JP’s model based on US wastewater suggests that the current infection wave is approaching the levels of the ancestral, alpha and delta waves https://t.co/a53Pxbha6q
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) September 8, 2023
Weiland predicted that another 7% to 10% of the U.S. population will be infected in the next month and a half.
Estimated mid-October:
Forecasting is difficult at the moment and there are many factors at play, so this is a range at the moment. Peaks are always difficult to predict.
Runs on lower models peaked this week. FLip is growing, but not fast enough to peak later than late September. pic.twitter.com/6idiApRyyP
— JWeiland (@JPWeiland) September 11, 2023
Both Biobot’s data and Wieland’s model show cases are starting to decline in the United States. But they likely won’t fall much, if at all, before the expected fall and winter surge.
World Health Organization flag on trends
In addition to infections, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hospitalizations increased by nearly 9% from Aug. 27 to Sept. 2, the most recent data available from the federal health agency. Between September 3 and 9, the death toll increased by nearly 5%.
Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for the COVID-19 response, said at a news conference on Thursday that the World Health Organization continues to receive reports on COVID-19 trends, including an increasing number of countries reporting infections, hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Increase.
In addition to early diagnosis and access to care, vaccinations can prevent serious illness and death, she said. WHO officials are encouraging people at high risk for adverse outcomes from the virus, such as the elderly and the immunocompromised, to get a booster dose as soon as possible — even if it’s not the latest XBB formula being rolled out in some parts of the world.
Officials said vaccinations and boosters using any available version “remain critical to saving people’s lives”.
US approves updated XBB booster
The CDC announced this week that all Americans 6 months and older are eligible for an updated COVID-19 booster vaccine tailored to the XBB Omicron strain.
The agency’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted 13-1 on Tuesday to approve updated shots from Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax for the vast majority of U.S. residents. Shortly thereafter, the federal health agency announced it accepted the committee’s recommendation and that a vaccine would be available later this week.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has not yet approved an updated formulation of Novavax. But the agency on Monday approved such boosters from Moderna and Pfizer.
The CDC expects there will be enough supply of booster doses and does not need to prioritize certain groups, such as the elderly or immunocompromised, for first doses, federal health officials said at Tuesday’s committee meeting.
Dr. George Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, told reporters that all eligible people should have access to the new booster shot when possible wealth Tuesday.
“It is clear that the vaccine is safe and effective across all age groups,” he said. “High-risk groups will particularly benefit from the vaccine.”
in a statement provided to wealth, The American Medical Association said on Tuesday it welcomed the committee’s recommendations, arguing that updated vaccinations would prevent about 400,000 hospitalizations and 40,000 deaths over the next few years.
“We continue to strongly urge everyone to get up to date with COVID-19, influenza and RSV vaccinations to protect themselves and their loved ones from serious complications, hospitalization and death,” the organization said, adding that it is expected to Vaccination numbers will increase infections this fall and winter.
New boosters, dying strains
An updated version of Omicron Booster, released around Labor Day last year, is bivalent and tailored specifically for Omicron and the original strain of the coronavirus. This year’s boosters are unit-priced, meaning they only target one strain of the virus: XBB.1.5 “Kraken,” which dominated the U.S. and elsewhere from late last year to early this year.
This strain is now almost extinct. XBB.1.5 was estimated to account for just 2.2% of U.S. infections on Friday Latest variant data CDC has provided.
While the latest vaccines are designed to target the dying Omicron strain, they still hold promise in preventing severe illness and death from currently circulating strains, the vast majority of which are members of the XBB virus family.
Dr. Stuart Ray, vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analysis at Johns Hopkins Medicine, said the new vaccine’s formula is “highly similar to the EG.5-related variant now circulating.” wealth Tuesday.
Preliminary data recently released show that the updated booster should also provide good protection against the new highly mutated Omicron generator “Pirola” BA.2.86. It is not a member of the XBB family, but is believed to have evolved from the so-called “Stealth Omicron” BA.2.
The updated vaccine doesn’t protect as well against Pirola as it does against EG.5 and other XBB variants, Ray said. Still, immunity is more than just antibodies, which are produced by B cells in response to infection and vaccination. The other (often forgotten) half of the immune system, T cells, provide protection against serious disease. While T cells can’t prevent infection like B cells, they can still help soften the blow of a BA.2.86 infection, EG.5 infection, or other infections.
Concern grows about troublesome ‘flip’ mutations
While the U.S. “mutant soup” remained largely unchanged Friday, experts continued to sound the alarm about the rising proportion of variants with the same mutations, according to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean and associate professor of research at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Arkansas, a top tracker of new coronavirus variants, told us that in the past month, about 93 people in the United States have % of new coronavirus sequences contain the F486P mutation. wealth on Friday. Mutations located on the spike protein enhance the virus’s ability to infect efficiently by binding more tightly to human cells. Rajnarayanan calls it the signature mutation of the season.
About half of the U.S. sequences from the same period found the F456L mutation, which is also present in the spike protein, he said. This mutation allows the virus to better evade immunity from vaccination and previous infection. He added that all top American bloodlines have this mutation.
What’s more, the top lineages are also starting to develop the L455F spike mutation, which makes it easier to infect cells, Rajnarayanan added.
For complex scientific reasons involving amino acid changes, variant trackers refer to the F456L and L455F mutations as “flip” mutations. Experts say these two mutations are emerging as one of the most worrying trends of the season, with nearly 20% of wastewater samples tracked by Biobot containing them.
Latest U.S. Genomics
While EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 variants remain the most common cause of circulating cases, there is growing dominance and rise of FLip variants (see @BiobotAnalytics Right) and HV.1 are worth noting and high/high temperature @siamosolocani pic.twitter.com/ZyxhvEUvn9— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) September 15, 2023
Experts say no one variant is likely to gain greater advantage than others this fall and winter. But a variation of the “flip combo” could dominate and pose the biggest problem of the season.
What’s more, the highly mutated variant “Pirola” BA.2.86 is likely to “flip” at some point, making it a bigger problem and potentially giving it the ability to spread more efficiently, Rajnarayanan said. .
Svlook
