Used cars for sale at Lee Auto Mall on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. (Staff photo by Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
Brianna Sukup | Portland Press Herald | Getty Images
DETROIT — Used car prices are expected to stabilize this year, with buyers of used cars and trucks getting more relief in 2023 after a series of record prices.
Automotive data company Cox Automotive expects wholesale prices for its Mannheim Used Car Value Index, which tracks the price of used cars sold at U.S. wholesale auctions, to be just 0.5% higher by the end of 2024 than in December 2023. Prices will fluctuate from month to month due to sales seasonality and other factors, Cox said.
By comparison, prices fell 7% in 2023 and nearly 15% in 2022 as prices rose during the coronavirus pandemic. At the time, the supply of new cars was at an all-time low as supply chain and parts issues disrupted car production.
“Volatility is expected to be lower in 2024 than in 2023, but we have been taught to expect surprises in wholesale markets,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economics and industry insights at Cox Automotive. ” in a version.
For potential car buyers, stability is a win. However, used car prices are still higher than before the pandemic. Traditionally, consumer retail prices have followed wholesale prices, but in recent years retail prices have not fallen as fast as wholesale prices.
Cox reported that as of last month, the average listing price of a used vehicle was $26,091, down 3.9% from the same time last year and 7.5% below the approximately $28,200 at the end of 2021. According to the data, the average listing price of a used car in 2019 was less than $20,000 to Cox.
Used car sales expected to grow That number is less than 1%, at 36.2 million, according to Cox Automotive. The forecast includes 19.2 million used car retail sales.
Cox said the “pessimistic” forecast, compared with expected used car sales, is that U.S. new car and truck sales will grow 1.3% this year to 15.7 million units.
“In terms of the economy and the auto market, we’re only growing 1% to 2%, but growth beats recession,” Jonathan Smoak, chief economist at Cox Automotive, said on a conference call Monday. ” As we enter 2024, new supply will return to spring 2020 levels, which will benefit consumers and lead to lower prices.”
Meanwhile, Cox expects all-electric vehicle sales to grow to account for more than 10% of new car and truck retail sales by 2024. This compares with 1.1 million units sold in 2023, accounting for 7.4% of retail sales.
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