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As Israel prepares for an apparently inevitable ground invasion of Gaza, a group of Western diplomats and politicians are arriving in Jerusalem. But visitors from the United States and Europe are sending a mixed and arguably contradictory message. They want to express their full support for Israel in its fight against Hamas. But they also urged Israelis to exercise restraint.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken conveyed this message during a visit to Tel Aviv on Thursday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will make a similar point when she visits Israel on Friday.
In Brussels, von der Leyen’s arrival in Israel comes amid some tension as the Israeli government urges more than 1 million Gazans to leave the northern Gaza Strip. The concern is that the President of the European Commission may look like he is supporting military action that would cause large-scale civilian casualties, which would quickly be labeled a war crime.
“We may be about to see ethnic cleansing on a massive scale,” one EU diplomat said. Another senior Brussels official said the EU should have heeded the UN secretary-general’s call for Israel to respect international humanitarian law.
But some in Brussels believe it is far better to communicate the EU’s position face-to-face with Israelis than through posts on social media platform X.
More broadly, European officials say they are focusing on three main aspects of the conflict. First, the battle itself. Second, the response from the wider region. Third, the reaction outside the West. “We are concerned that we will pay a heavy price in the global South as a result of this conflict,” an EU official said.
But Western countries have little confidence that Israel will heed calls for restraint. “They believe they are facing a second potential Holocaust and are fighting for the country’s survival,” the EU official said. “They won’t listen to us.”
European diplomats are also alarmed that the Israeli government has no interest in prioritizing the lives of Gaza hostages – some of whom are from European countries.
The broader Middle East is also a focus of US policy. Following Israel, Blinken also visited several other countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and Egypt. Western officials have been discussing with their Egyptian counterparts the possibility of Egypt opening its border with Gaza to allow refugees to leave the territory. But Egyptians insist they will not do so. They argue they are already hosting refugees fleeing other conflicts, such as that in Sudan.
There is a widespread fear that once Israel drives Palestinians out of Gaza, it will never let them back.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
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