What do Sunak’s Conservatives stand for now?

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Party conference season is approaching and the Prime Minister has made a series of unrelated announcements – from rethinking the HS2 rail line to replacing A-levels with BAs – to look energetic. The Conservative Party’s slogan this year is “making long-term decisions for a brighter future.” There’s nothing wrong with that – unless you’ve been in power for 13 years.

Rishi Sunak has calmed market jitters in his first year in office, performed well among world leaders and broken the Brexit deadlock in Northern Ireland. But he is struggling to put forward a coherent narrative because it is no longer clear what the Conservatives stand for. The old idea of the Conservatives as a small-state, low-tax party disappeared under the leadership of “cake-y” Boris Johnson. The idea that they were capable has collapsed under the pressure of failing public services. With Brexit, their pragmatic rather than ideological principles disappeared.

One of the reasons the party has dominated British politics for two centuries is that it has been trusted with the economy. This view was overturned by Brexit extremists and later Liz Truss. Even now, seven years after the referendum, few Conservative MPs are willing to risk publicly admitting that Brexit is a disaster. As a result, they are destined to scour their books for savings rather than pursue the obvious path to economic growth: closer to our largest, closest markets.

The party, renowned for its historical ability to reinvent itself, has become something of an unrepentant cult. If you continue to hold on to Brexit dividends, you can’t really support growth. How can you expect to lead the world in artificial intelligence if your market is only 67 million people? How can you sing the praises of electric car production if EU rules of origin will put British manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage?

Since 2016, delivering a hard Brexit has seemed to be the Conservative Party’s only raison d’être. A party that once accused the left of Stalinism went into full-scale purge mode. May made no overtures to Brussels and squandered the goodwill she could have used to strike a better deal. Johnson then removed some of his most talented MPs from his parliamentary party because they defied him over Brexit.

The Brexit referendum reflects a realignment of British politics and mirrors similar changes in the United States and Europe. The vote depends more on whether the electorate is socially liberal and internationalist – what pollster Stephen Shakespeare described in 2005 as “the drawbridge down” – or culturally conservative and protectionist “the drawbridge up”. (Tony Blair later redefined it as the more pejorative “open/closed”.) Those who suffered from the negative effects of globalization and felt ignored combined the so-called “red wall” with the traditional blue to help Johnson came to power in 2019. county.

This electoral coalition may not be sustainable. It is not enough to claim to be on the side of “the people” against the “elites” – although the current government has done just that on immigration. There is an insurmountable tension between voters with precarious jobs who want big government to protect their livelihoods and wealthy voters who resent high taxes. So Johnson disingenuously promised to “level up” the country and build 40 new hospitals, with little indication of how it would be paid for.

Sunak will be acutely aware of all this when he stands up to speak on Wednesday. These occasions set the tone for leadership. As Downing Street prepares for the party conference, the job involves a desperate triangle between trying to make headlines without appearing crazy and garnering applause from the faithful.

In the past two weeks, Sunak has made two important interventions on net zero and HS2, seeking to weigh up honestly. I’m less cynical about this than many people are. I find it entirely possible to believe that the spreadsheet-obsessed Prime Minister is unhappy with Johnson’s electric vehicle targets and the wastefulness of his ridiculously over-the-top rail plans. I can also clearly see how political manipulators hope to use net zero to distance themselves from Labor – a deeply frustrating response to climate change.

It would be risky for Sunak to undo his predecessor’s policies. Changing the goals of infrastructure projects could scare investors. On the other hand, some adult conversation is undoubtedly needed. One issue is whether Conservative members will be concerned about how much regulation and costs Brexit will impose on British businesses.

That is impossible. Instead, expect a slew of announcements with conveniently released dates. Flirting with estate tax cuts smacks of desperation. When George Osborne did so in 2007, he frightened Gordon Brown into calling an election. But even Osborne never did that.

Can the Conservative Party find a new raison d’être? A new collection of essays edited by former cabinet minister David Gauke convincingly argues that the party should return to the center right through smart policies such as tax reform and contributory benefits. The fact that five authors were expelled by Johnson and one resigned from the cabinet shows how difficult it will be.

A few months ago I spoke at an event alongside the influential Brexiteer Lord David Frost. He denounced the “establishment”. I asked him who he thought the agency was, given the highly influential position he has held in government over the past four years. But I have no doubts about the enthusiasm of the supporters of permanent revolution. If this is what the Conservatives stand for, they should be out of office a long time ago.

Camila.cavendish@ft.com

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