Where are the billion-dollar movies? Hollywood lacks mega hits

LOS ANGELES — Here’s the billion-dollar question: Why is this year’s blockbuster in short supply?

generic “Super Mario Bros. The Movie” is the only 2023 movie to cross the $1 billion mark at the global box office. Even with some big titles on the calendar, it doesn’t look like there will be another one.

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“If you gave 10 people a release schedule at the beginning of the year and said, ‘We’re going to make a billion-dollar movie out of all these movies, can you choose which one?’ That’s what the Mario Bros. Movie is about,” said Mike Polydoros, chief executive of PaperAirplane Media, a film marketing firm.

The lack of a multi-billion-dollar box office signaled a sea change for the industry. In the years leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, and even last year, several blockbuster films grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.

The lack of such blockbusters is especially stark in 2023 disney, with Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar and traditional fairy tale franchises. While the studio is poised to be this year’s box office ruler, a string of missteps in recent months has raised concerns that audience preferences are changing too quickly for Hollywood to adapt.

In February, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum Fever” failed to appeal to all but the most devoted Marvel fans, grossing just $214.5 million domestically and less than $500 million worldwide. “Element,” which opened just last month, is currently the second-lowest domestic grosser of any Pixar film in the studio’s history, just ahead of 2020’s “Onward,” whose box office was cut short by the pandemic.

Disney’s Lucasfilm’s “Raiders of the Lost Ark: At Disk,” which opens on June 30, is expected to struggle to recoup its nearly $300 million production budget. To date, the film has grossed $122.1 million domestically and $221.4 million worldwide.

“Overall, I think Disney is in what was widely expected to emerge from the pandemic and undergo another leadership change,” said Shawn Robbins, principal analyst at BoxOffice.com. A hugely influential factor that has reshaped the studio’s status in many ways, especially at the box office, given their top franchises and brands have been firing on all cylinders over the past decade. If not for the occasional ebb and flow.”

Disney CEO Bob Iger told CNBC’s David Faber on Thursday that the company will cut Marvel and Star Wars content to cut costs and revive its brand.

A highlight for Disney was James Gunn’s final curtain call at Marvel Studios. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” is the third-highest-grossing film domestically so far this year, with $357.5 million. It’s second only to Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Gunn now helps lead Warner Bros. Discovery Channel’s DC Studios.

The third Guardians of the Galaxy movie has grossed $834.2 million worldwide since its release in May, but likely won’t hit the coveted $1 billion threshold.

It’s worth noting that Disney’s “Avatar: Way of Water” grossed over $1 billion worldwide in 2023, but since it opens in 2022, it doesn’t count as a billion-dollar movie this year.

“Through 2023, the billion-dollar club appears to be becoming even more exclusive,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. So far, this year’s films lack both global influence and absolute dominance in the market, unable to cross the $1 billion threshold in the fiercely competitive global film market.”

The Chinese market, in particular, has been a major driver of previous multi-billion-dollar blockbusters, but the region has been more selective about which Hollywood films it allows. China has also developed its own lucrative movie market.

For example, between 15% and 22% of the box office grosses for most Marvel movies released before the pandemic came from China. Only a handful of such comic book films have played on the country’s screens in the wake of the pandemic, and those that have, have seen their revenues slash.

The first two Ant-Man films, released in 2015 and 2018, generated about 20% of their box office receipts in China. Meanwhile, “Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantum Fever” sold just 8 percent of its box office in China.

“Globally, China has developed into a market where certain films and franchises can no longer be counted on to generate blockbusters, leaving a hole that may be difficult to fill in the short term,” Robbins said.