UAW President Shawn Fain joins union members on a picket line outside the General Motors Willow Run Distribution Center in Belleville, Michigan, on September 26, 2023, as President Joe Biden Joe Biden ) spoke nearby.
Evelyn Hochstein | Reuters
DETROIT – On Monday, the United Auto Workers and General Motors It ends contentious negotiations and a roughly six-week strike against Detroit automakers.
UAW President Shawn Fain has warned of a more militant union in negotiations, but few, if any, expect the union to outmaneuver the companies as strategically as it has in the past. Resulting in a record deal involving 146,000 UAW members with General Motors, Ford and star.
While full details of the final deal are still emerging, they set a 25% compounded pay increase for the 4.5-year deal, including an 11% raise upon approval; reinstate cost-of-living adjustments; increase 401(k) company contributions; and boost profits Share the prize.
UAW members must still vote to approve the tentative agreement. In the case of GM and Stellantis, local union leaders must also approve the deals before members vote.
Fearn and unions clear winners at end of talks, but others like Tesla President Joe Biden may also be in the lead. The losers, then, include not only the automakers but also their potential investors — and their EV ambitions.
“There are a lot of winners here,” said Art Wheaton, a labor professor at Cornell University’s Worker Institute. “So the number one, of course, is the UAW members.” “This is far beyond my expectations and imagination… It’s a home run.”
Winner: Sean Fearn
Fein emerged as the UAW representative in the talks, tapping into a wide range of topics such as opposition to billionaires, workers’ rights and Rebuilding the middle class and successfully drawing national attention to union negotiations with the Detroit automakers.
Fein also became the voice of victory thanks to his tough rhetoric and frequent, on-the-fly updates in the process.
Losers: The Big Three
Detroit’s “Big Three” automakers underestimated Fein and the union’s strategy, which involved unprecedented, targeted strikes that kept the automakers on edge and helped give the unions leverage over the companies. .
The result was record contracts for union employees, squeezing more out of the company than many expected before the negotiations.
Potential Winner: UAW Organization
Fein said Sunday that the UAW plans to use the record deals to assist its struggling organization, including auto companies outside of Detroit’s Big Three automakers, citing concerns with The “Big Five or Big Six” automakers.
Can the UAW organize foreign automakers (also known as transplants) or electric vehicle companies in the US, e.g. Tesla or Rivianwill be determined in the next few years.
“They have the best chance now because they’ve had more than 40 years to organize transplants, and maybe non-union electric car companies,” said business professor Marick Masters. at wayne state university In Detroit. “But it’s still an uphill battle.”
Losers: Investors
Ford shares are down 23% since the targeted strikes began on Sept. 15, General Motors shares are down about 19%, and Stellantis shares, which have not released expected strike costs, are down about 4%.
It’s unclear how much the deals will increase labor costs at the companies, which have argued that giving in to all the union’s demands would affect their competitiveness and even long-term viability.
Deutsche Bank recently estimated that total costs would increase by $6.2 billion for Ford, $7.2 billion for General Motors and $6.4 billion for Stellantis over the life of the agreement.
Ford says UAW agreement, if approved by members, will increase Assembly costs per vehicle range from $850 to $900. Finance Chief John Lawler said last week that Ford would work to “increase productivity and efficiency and reduce costs across the company” to meet previously announced profitability targets.
Some winners, some losers: UAW members
Overall, UAW members covered by the new agreement are winners, but not all are suffering financially from the union’s strike against Detroit automakers.
Unions are increasingly using factory strikes as part of their targeted or “stand-up” strike strategy. This means that members who participated in the original strike or were fired as a result of the lockout did not receive more than $500 in weekly strike pay for nearly six weeks, while other members were never asked to stop working.
Under the Ford agreement, workers will be paid retroactively for hours worked on Oct. 23 and after.
Potential Losers: Non-Healing Plants
Non-union factories at Tesla, Rivian and other car companies toyota and modern The pay structure for factory workers may be being rethought.
With the UAW’s record victory, the companies risk losing workers to rival factories in Detroit. They may also be targeted for increased organizing efforts by members like those of the United Auto Workers seeking higher wages.
“By allowing the UAW to win huge gains in their factories, non-union companies now have a choice: Either raise wages and benefits to keep up with the UAW’s current levels, or face the opportunity to gain access to union organizers and union organizers. Push your plan,” Whitten said.
Loser: Electric Cars
To offset rising labor costs and address lower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles, both Ford and General Motors have announced delays in the production or investment of electric vehicles.
General Motors said it would delay production of at least three models until late 2025 in addition to expanding electric truck production in Michigan by at least a year, while Ford said last week it would delay a $12 billion plan for new electric vehicles. Manufacturing capacity planning expenditures.
Stellantis has invested heavily in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the U.S. but has not announced any major changes to its EV plans.
“Obviously, the unions are ahead,” Masters said. “Companies will be able to survive strikes and they will be able to survive rising labor costs. But I’m not sure they’re going to win the electric car race.”
Potential Winner: Tesla
A slower rollout of some electric vehicles could give Tesla more time to compete in the market with its current and upcoming products.
Electric vehicle leader Tesla’s market share has declined in recent quarters as competition intensifies, especially in the luxury segment, and the Detroit automaker is expected to intensify competition for lower-priced models.
“It remains to be seen whether (Detroit automakers) can join the fray with profitable cars, electric vehicles, beat the competition in time and maintain profitability at a scale that allows them to maintain their position over time. – What a separate entity can do Come,” Masters said.
Winner: Biden
Biden decides to take historic action Join UAW members on the picket line to show support and support his claim to be “the most pro-union president in American history.”
While the UAW has so far not returned to supporting Biden, that support could influence the union to eventually do so. It could also sway key blue-collar voters in the Midwest ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden praised the UAW deal with the Detroit automakers after speaking with Fein on Monday.
“These record-breaking agreements reward autoworkers who contributed so much to keeping the industry running and growing during the financial crisis more than a decade ago,” Biden said at the White House. “These agreements ensure the Big Three can still Leading the world in quality and innovation.”
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