More tradition than coincidence, Christmas is just around the corner and the market looks set for another round of gains. In October, Bitcoin (BTC) soared above $35,000, setting another 2023 high. The year-long rise has been attributed to non-traditional market trends, including excitement over a pending Bitcoin spot ETF application from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
If you, like me, have been working in the cryptocurrency space since 2014, you will agree that the holidays are always accompanied by a feeling of euphoria – especially this year. Everyone seems to agree that a bull market is coming, so it’s time to keep a close eye on the market and explore unique opportunities in multiple niches – and think about your trading approach.
A traditional Christmas party?
Christmas gatherings bring excitement and joy to many in the cryptocurrency space. Historically, this season brings increased trade volumes, significant market volatility and spikes in prices. However, the situation in recent years has been uncharacteristically different, with market dynamics affected by unprecedented factors. Take the global pandemic in 2020 and Elon Musk’s tweets in 2021 and 2022. Cryptocurrencies are soaring for reasons no one could predict.
related: Bitcoin breaks 35K on Christmas?If this happens, please thank Jerome Powell
Predicting cryptocurrency market behavior is similar to predicting the weather. This is a challenging endeavor. While past years have brought joy to December, this season is affected by more complex factors, including regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions.
Never mind ETFs – Bitcoin halving is just around the corner
Investors have been waiting for SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF. The theory here is that ETFs will attract institutional investors to cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event has also brought excitement to the market. The Bitcoin halving event scheduled to occur in April 2024 is of great significance. It has to do with Bitcoin’s limited supply of 21 million coins. Top cryptocurrencies are primarily issued through mining. Bitcoin halving is a mechanism whereby the number of newly created Bitcoins in each block is reduced by 50%. This occurs every 210,000 blocks (or approximately every four years). The halving ensures that Bitcoin remains a scarce and highly sought-after asset.
Bitcoin to $100,000. It has been said for many years that gold and silver are God’s money. Bitcoin People$. If the stock and bond markets crash, gold and silver will skyrocket, which is bad news. The worse news is that if the world economy collapses, BC gold is worth $1 million and silver is worth $75,000 to $60,000. Savers of fake dollars. Debt is too high. Moms, pops and kids in…
— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) August 14, 2023
The upcoming halving has sparked major predictions for Bitcoin’s price. Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” thinks it will gross at least $100,000. Max Keizer predicts a new all-time high of $220,000. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor is as optimistic as ever, predicting a sale price of $1 million. These forecasts are based on historical trends and social impacts. These and other non-traditional forces were behind the rallies we witnessed in October.
In my opinion, Bitcoin could easily break past its all-time high of $69,000 and possibly even surpass $169,000.
What happens if the ETF is not approved?
Analysts at financial services firm JPMorgan Chase said that if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected its previous ETF application, it could lead to legal action by the applicant. The court ruled against Grayscale in August, paving the way for Grayscale to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF. BlackRock, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and others are also pursuing ETF approval.
I’m sure it would be more boring than that – but at times it does feel like it’s all set up for Gensler’s semi-comedy pull.
— Dave Nadig (@DaveNadig) October 30, 2023
Multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs could be approved within months. At least for now, this seems inevitable, if not imminent.
middle east conflict
Geopolitical tensions and outright war are a wild card in the cryptocurrency world. The ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Hamas is a stark reminder of how external factors can ripple through markets. While the direct impact may not be clear, investors have historically sought refuge in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, during global crises. So far, the war has not affected the cryptocurrency market, but as the situation develops, market sentiment and capital flows may change.
Three days after the war broke out, cryptocurrency prices fell and oil prices soared as traders speculated that supply could be disrupted if the war spread to neighboring countries such as Iran. The world’s busiest shipping lanes, including the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Suez Canal, are all located in the Middle East. This would further fuel fears of economic danger if the situation escalates to these locations.
related: Bitcoin is evolving into a multi-asset network
Pat Tucker of the Economist Intelligence Unit said the expansion of the war into Sinai and the Suez region “increases the risk of attacks on energy and non-energy trade flowing through the Suez Canal” famous In comments to CNBC, “This route accounts for almost 15% of global trade, nearly 45% of crude oil, 9% of refined oil, and 8% of LNG tankers transported through this route.”
Cryptocurrency markets have not been significantly affected so far, but if the conflict continues to escalate, it could lead to increased price sensitivity heading into Christmas.
Altcoin season?
As the holiday season approaches, traders are eagerly pondering the possibility of an “altcoin” season. Based on historical data (we’ve seen previous replacement seasons occur in December 2017 and January 2021), we may see this trend begin to be more severe in December. I expect the next altcoin season to start in December (with the help of Bitcoin ETF approval) and last until the Bitcoin halving in April.
Until an ETF is approved, Bitcoin may be stuck at relatively stable levels, which means now may not be a good time to start looking at altcoins. I’m particularly passionate about niche areas including GameFi and tokenized real world assets (RWA). (Disclaimer: I’ve been wrong in the past, and I’ll probably be wrong again.) When altcoin season begins in earnest, tokens with valuable use cases in these spaces will likely be at the forefront of this run.
This Christmas is expected to bring about a cryptocurrency bull run, but the path remains uncertain. The collapse of ETFs, global tensions, and the potential of altcoins all warrant caution. We can’t always predict the future, but we can prepare for it by staying informed, managing risks and seizing strategic opportunities. It’s not just about celebrating the holidays, it’s about embracing the future of finance in the exciting world of crypto.
Alvin Lutra is a 28-year-old cryptocurrency entrepreneur who sold his first company, StudySocial, for $1.7 million when he was 17, and developed more than 30 mobile applications before he was 18. He became involved in cryptocurrencies in 2014 and is currently building CasaNFT. He has invested in more than 400 crypto projects.
This article is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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