From the moment Li Qiang arrived at the G20 summit on a low-key charter flight over the weekend, the Chinese premier’s mission in New Delhi was clear: not to steal the limelight from his boss, Xi Jinping.
China’s No. 2 official announced his attendance at the summit at the last minute after Xi Jinping absented himself from the summit without explanation, and did not fly on the usual “private plane” reserved for him and the Chinese president.
After arriving in India, Li Keqiang met with US President Joe Biden and several other leaders. But Li Keqiang’s low-key appearance has drawn attention to the mystery of Xi Jinping’s absence – the first time a Chinese president has missed the G20 – and left many wondering whether China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong will choose to withdraw. future summits, thereby weakening Beijing’s international influence. diplomatic.
“This is the first of many international summits that Xi Jinping has decided to skip due to diplomatic conflicts or domestic troubles,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Analysis Center. The beginning of an exit amid years of dynamic diplomacy.”
Just weeks before Xi Jinping eschewed the G20, the Chinese leader strutted to the BRIC summit in Johannesburg, accepting the South African Order of Merit from his host and backing the group’s expansion to include essentially other Sympathetic emerging market countries were included.
However, even at the BRICS meeting, there were signs that Xi Jinping was withdrawing. The Chinese leader failed to speak at a business forum he was scheduled to attend and also hinted at tensions with India when he discussed the disputed Himalayan border with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Analysts say growing differences with New Delhi played a decisive role in Xi Jinping’s decision to skip the G20 summit.
The Beijing-based China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) think tank, which is affiliated with Beijing’s spy agency the Ministry of State Security, on Saturday accused India of exacerbating disharmony and geopolitical competition in the Group of 20 (G20).
In an unusually blunt post on social media, CICIR claimed that India had done so by holding side meetings in Arunachal Pradesh (a disputed border area with China) in March and Kashmir (claimed by Beijing’s allies) in May. , introducing territorial disputes into the G20. Pakistan.
CICIR stated that New Delhi “destroyed the cooperative atmosphere of the G20 meeting and prevented the meeting from achieving substantive results”, which was shooting itself in the foot.
The post also criticized India for hosting the Voices of the Global South summit in January that included more than 120 countries, excluding China, Brazil and some other major developing countries.
“In general, I think the West wants to make India the leader of the global South, to make India the world’s factory and replace China,” Wang Yiwei, a professor at Renmin University of China and deputy director of the Xi Jinping Institute of Thought, said on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era .
Wang added that these aspirations, coupled with India’s holding of the G20 meeting in the disputed border region and its failure to invite Pakistan to the leaders’ summit, made it difficult for Xi to attend.
NR Liu, an expert on China and globalization at the University of Hong Kong, said there was also growing anger in China over India joining the Quad, a security grouping that also includes the United States, Japan and Australia.
“In the post-COVID era, China views India as part of the US conspiracy against China,” Liu said.
Beijing emphasizes that the G20 was established after the Asian financial crisis in 1999 to focus on international economic issues.
Analysts said the stance meant the forum should avoid topics such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The statement issued at this year’s summit was much softer than that at last year’s Indonesian meeting attended by Xi Jinping.
It may also help to justify Xi Jinping’s decision to send Li Keqiang as prime minister in charge of China’s economy.
“The G20 is basically an economic summit, and of course the prime minister is in charge of economic affairs,” said Henry Wang, director of the China Center for Globalization in Beijing. “And he’s a new prime minister and hasn’t really had a chance to interact with international leaders, so this is probably the best time for him to attend the G20.”
Analysts predict that the Chinese president will attend some summits, although the success of Li Keqiang’s succession from China’s perspective may prompt Xi Jinping to skip similar meetings. For example, next year’s G20 will be held in Brazil, and the Brazilian government has friendly relations with Beijing.
Xi Jinping is expected to still prioritize relations with the United States. Wang said China’s main focus now will be a possible meeting between Xi Jinping and Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in San Francisco in November.
As Xi Jinping’s trusted right-hand man, Li Keqiang can be trusted to deliver messages directly to the Chinese president. But analysts say the real decision-making power ultimately lies with Xi Jinping, and his gradual withdrawal from international forums could weaken Beijing’s influence on the global stage and complicate negotiations with China.
“If Xi Jinping attends fewer summits, he will have fewer contacts with other leaders and rely more on second-hand diplomatic sources, so his decision-making may deteriorate as a result,” Thomas said.
“China will become a more rigid negotiating partner at international summits, which will weaken its value to all international leaders. . . . It’s a lose-lose situation – China loses, and the world loses.”
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