
The following They said in February that U.S. home prices had hit bottomZillow economists raised their home price forecasts every month until August. At that moment, Zillow predicts U.S. home prices will rise 6.5% over the next 12 monthswhich is slightly higher than the national house price annual growth rate of 5.5% (according to Keith Hillerthe average since 1975.
However, this weekZillow economists issued a downward revision and forecast that U.S. home prices will rise 4.9% between August 2023 and August 2024.
“Zillow’s forecast for the value of a typical home nationwide was revised down this month on expectations of higher mortgage rates and a slightly less tight market,” Zillow economists wrote.
In other words, Zillow economists are coming to terms with the fact that labor market elasticity may keep interest rates higher for longer than expected.The recent firming of interest rates – which has made The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.30% on Tuesday–The U.S. housing market lost some steam in 2023.
“August saw an unexpected increase in the number of new listings entering the market in late summer. New listings increased 4.0% from July to August, marking the first time in Zillow’s records that listings have increased in two months. Need What is clear is that total new listings in August, as well as total pending inventory, remained well below typical pre-pandemic levels, and inventory conditions remain very tight. Nonetheless, the unusual increase in supply in late summer has provided some relief This has affected market conditions, causing our outlook for home prices to cool,” Zillow economists wrote.
While Zillow economists expect national home prices to rise 4.9% over the next 12 months, their forecast model predicts that 39 of the nation’s 400 largest housing markets will rise 7.0% or higher over the next 12 months. increase. (Last month this number was 120 markets).
There isn’t just one unifying factor; these 39 real estate markets are spread across the country. They are found in the West (such as Santa Maria, California), the South (Miami, Florida), the Midwest (Youngstown, Ohio), and the Northeast (Atlantic City, New Jersey).
While Zillow thinks U.S. home prices have hit bottom — CoreLogic and AEI Housing Center Also believe – not every company agrees.company likes Morgan Stanley and Moody’s Analytics The argument is that U.S. home prices have more to give up, and that will happen between now and the end of 2024.
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