Pantera Capital believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach nearly $150,000 during the next four-year halving cycle.
In its latest “blockchain letter’, executives at the crypto asset manager doubled down on their bullish BTC price forecast for 2024 and beyond in a report published on Aug. 22.
Halving Data Reinforces November 2022 BTC Price Bottom
Pantera Capital believes that Bitcoin’s price performance is largely determined by its halving cycle, and with the next halving cycle due in the next 12 months, the firm is betting that historical trends will continue.
It noted that BTC/USD tends to enter cycle bottoms and tops at roughly the same time from the halving of the subsidy per block, which reduces the amount of Bitcoin paid to miners by 50% per block.
“Historically, Bitcoin bottomed out 477 days before the halving, climbed all the way, and then exploded,” the report reads.
“From halving to the peak of the next bull cycle, post-halving rallies last an average of 480 days.”
The same theory suggests that the 2022 bear market bottom marks the bottom of the current BTC price cycle.
Pantera continued: “If history repeats itself, the price of Bitcoin should bottom out on December 30, 2022.”
Looking ahead, BTC/USD could trade around $35,000 by the halving date in April 2024 – a target that remains on track.
However, what happened in the next 480 days involved more than just new all-time highs.
“The 2016 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by only one-third of the first halving. Interestingly, it affected the price by exactly one-third. The 2020 halving made new The supply of Bitcoin has been reduced by 43% relative to the previous halving. It has an impact on the price of up to 23%.” Pantera said.
“The next halving is expected to happen on April 20th, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will almost halve the new supply. If history repeats itself, the next halving will result in Bitcoin rose to $35,000 before the halving and $148,000 after the halving.”
With 480 days until the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin is expected to hit its next all-time high in July 2025.
Bitcoin Bulls Predict 4.2x Rally
Pantera isn’t the only firm predicting six-figure highs for BTC prices beyond next year.
Related: Bitcoin Is In ‘New Bull Cycle’ – Metrics Bottom Before 70% Rally
The bullish forecasts include those based on bitcoin’s so-called “floor forward price” indicator, which this month showed BTC/USD breaking the $100,000 mark by 2026.
Others also believe that $100,000 is possible, but not before the halving next year.
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This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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